By Idriss El Alaoui Talibi, Mahssan Afzali, & Michele Mignogna - Defence and Procurement Desk

Introduction

While early forms of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) have existed for decades, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) has pushed these technologies beyond simple automation, making them more independent, adaptive, and more lethal than ever before. A groundbreaking innovation or a dangerous gamble?

AWS, defined as military systems or “weapons that select and apply force to targets without human intervention” by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), are no longer futuristic concepts, but rather on-field realities. 

Applications on the Field

Recently, several uses of AI-driven weapons have been recorded in both Ukraine and Gaza, further underscoring how modern battlefields are undergoing a fundamental shift. These incidents signal the dawn of an era where machines transcend their traditional roles as tools and become active combatants.

While Ukraine has leveraged AI-driven drone swarms for reconnaissance and precision strikes, Israel has, in turn, deployed systems such as “Lavender” or “Gospel” in bombing campaigns in Palestine. These battlefield realities embody this shift toward machine-driven decision-making in warfare, hinting at a future where AWS plays decisive roles in combat scenarios, raising several ethical, legal, but also strategic concerns. 

The Third Revolution in Warfare

This shift, often called the “third revolution in warfare,” is being driven by rapid advancements in AI. As the global race for AI dominance intensifies—especially between the U.S. and China—its impact is reaching far beyond the social and economic realms, reshaping military power and defense strategies.

With innovation largely led by the private sector, governments are no longer the primary drivers of technological change. Instead, they must adapt—either by cooperating with or controlling tech firms. The U.S. and China represent two competing models: one focused on aligning public and private innovation, the other on centralising power under a single-party state. How these models perform will shape future global power dynamics and success on the battlefield. 

As said, at the heart of this revolution is the private sector, which is rapidly transforming the defence landscape, and its players. Traditionally, military technology was dominated by established defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, or BAE systems. However, lately, a new wave of tech-driven defence firms is challenging this status quo. Indeed, according to groundbreaking reports from the U.S., Palantir, Anduril, OpenAI, and SpaceX have formed a consortium to bid for defense contracts, leveraging their cutting-edge technologies to introduce AI-enhanced military capabilities to the defense industry. Recent data shows that between 2019 and 2022, U.S. military and intelligence agencies awarded major tech companies contracts worth at least $53 billion. Altogether, these firms aim at offering more agile and cost-effective solutions, potentially, reshaping, not only, modern warfare, but also the industry of defence.

The Involvement of Tech Companies

​Tech companies are driving innovation at a pace that traditional defence contractors struggle to match. For example, Skydio, a San Francisco-based startup, has developed autonomous drones utilising artificial intelligence to execute missions without GPS. On the other hand, collaborations between OpenAI and Anduril Industries aim to integrate advanced AI technologies into military systems to enhance capabilities such as countering drone threats. This contribution, by nature, has resulted in vigorous competition in the pursuit of profit maximization and market dominance in defense technologies. Tech firms are increasingly engaging in defense contracts to expand their market presence. For instance, companies like Palantir and Anduril along with SpaceX and OpenAI are in pursuit of Pentagon contractswhile Skydio has secured significant contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and its allies. 

But regardless of their significant effect on military capabilities, these innovations can lead to reduced government control and therefore a cause for concern for national security. According to the World Economic Forum, non-state actors can convert civilian devices, like commercial drones, into lethal AW using open-source AI and lightweight processing. Once such software is adapted for military purposes, its global dissemination becomes challenging to control. 

Additionally, the deployment of AWS has its own ethical complications. A central concern is the delegation of life-and-death decisions to machines without meaningful human control, especially when adhering to principles of distinction and proportionality under International Humanitarian Law. There is growing concern over the ability of these systems to effectively differentiate between combatants and non-combatants and to assess the proportionality of an attack. More complicated would be situations in which AI has picked up biases from underlying data sets and may wrongly determine who a legitimate target is based on factors including gender, age, race, and ability.

Conclusion

The integration of AI and AWS is ushering in a new era of warfare—one increasingly shaped not by governments alone, but by private tech companies whose innovation cycles far outpace traditional defence procurement models. This shift presents both unprecedented opportunities and complex challenges. On the one hand, firms like Palantir, Anduril, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Skydio are redefining what is technologically possible on the battlefield. On the other hand, their growing role in national security raises urgent questionsabout control, accountability, and ethical use.

As the arms race in AI intensifies—particularly between the U.S. and China—it is not only state power but industrial ecosystems that will determine strategic advantage. The success of future military operations may depend less on the quantity of traditional assets and more on the ability to harness real-time data, autonomous systems, and AI-enhanced decision-making. This transforms procurement priorities, requiring defence institutions to adapt procurement frameworks, ensure effective oversight, and navigate a landscape where innovation is driven by market incentives rather than strategic necessity.

If left unchecked, the proliferation of AWS could destabilize existing deterrence models and accelerate a global arms race where lethal capabilities are deployed with reduced human oversight. Conversely, responsible integration—backed by clear policy, ethical safeguards, and intergovernmental coordination—could enhance operational effectiveness while maintaining international legal and moral standards.

Ultimately, the battlefield of tomorrow is being built today—not only in labs and war rooms, but in boardrooms, investment rounds, and strategic alliances between governments and the private sector. The question is no longer if tech companies will reshape global security, but how states will respond to remain in control of it.