News Archives – Page 10 of 24

July 19, 2022 — No Comments

Over-tourism, Housing Security and Mobility in Venice

Author: Sarah Toubman.

Venice recently announced that from January 2023 it will charge a fee of between €3 to €10 to tourists who visit the city for a day only, a long-awaited measure by locals who feel the negative effects of overtourism on a day-to-day basis. Overtourism poses both a nuisance and a hazard to those living in the city. Tourists leave garbage by the canals, posing an environmental and health risk. Large tour groups also swarm the city’s small streets, making it difficult for everyday people, especially the elderly, to easily reach their destinations. Oversized cruise ships also previously damaged the Venetian Lagoon’s natural ecosystem and the city’s historic built environment, such as medieval walls and docks, until a change in regulation last year banning these boats from the port.

Venice also has problems with Airbnb, like many global tourism hubs. Many properties are owned by wealthy landlords who live outside the city and rent their homes to those passing through for a short period of time, failing to contribute to the city’s economic or cultural life. This also creates a housing security issue, as those who live or seek to move to Venice are limited in choice and price. “If we don’t fix these problems, Venice will be like Disneyland – just a park for the tourists without people living there,” Venetian activist Matteo Sechi commented in 2010. In fact, as of 2016, less than 55,000 people live in the city of Venice, while over 60,000 tourists can visit per day in the high season.

The new tax on day-trippers aims to address this by setting a tourist “threshold of 40,000 or 50,000 visitors a day,” according to Simone Venturini, Venice’s tourism councilor. Those who stay in Venice overnight will not have to pay the fee, as, since 2011, they have been subject to a nightly city charge on hotel or Airbnb bills. There is also a robust list of exceptions to the tax on day trippers. The list includes: residents of Venice, residents of the Veneto region, relatives up to the 3rd degree to anyone living in Venice, those who work or study in Venice, anyone who was born in or owns property in Venice, those visiting Venice for official business or a sports competition, and more.

One issue that has not yet been comprehensively analyzed by many considering limiting tourism to Venice is the way these restrictions will interact with EU mobility law. Under EU law, the freedom of EU citizens to move, reside, and work across the EU is guaranteed. In fact, it is guaranteed that as tourists, “EU citizens may enter and stay in the territory of another Member States for up to three months without being subject to any conditions or formalities other than the requirement to hold a valid identity card or passport.” Technically speaking, Venice’s charge for tourists may evade categorization as a “condition or formality” to enter the territory of an EU member state, as it does not actually prevent visitors from entering, but requires they pay a tax upon arrival. Furthermore, it concretely addresses the very real issues related to overtourism Venetians face.

However, addressing these issues in this manner means the city of Venice essentially draws legislative lines between who is a “good” or a “bad” tourist, and who is or isn’t a “real” Venetian, and therefore exempt. For example, even if an EU citizen grew up in Venice, but was born elsewhere and no longer had family in the city, they may still have to pay the new fee if they visit for a day only. On the surface, this may seem like an inappropriate application of the regulation, but on the other hand, it would likely take the local Venetian government a huge amount of resources and funding to accurately sift through this level of nuance. For the moment, the tax on daytrippers to Venice, the vast majority of whom arrive via large cruise ships, seems to be a suitable measure to discourage overtourism in the city. However, were the range of tourists subject to tax to be expanded this would certainly raise a number of legal, moral, and security-related issues.

Venice is not the only city in Italy or Europe struggling with problems related to overtourism and housing security, however it is one of the few struggling with both these issues and a rapidly depleting population. Florence has also called for restrictions related to Airbnb, while Barcelona plans to introduce a pollution tax for cruise passengers, and Amsterdam taxes cruise guests. But while Barcelona has a population of 1.6 million, Amsterdam has 907,976 inhabitants, and Florence has 383,083 residents, Venice has less than 55,000. Nevertheless, Venice is not alone in these concerns, with Dubrovnik, Croatia, recently raising its tax on overnight tourist stays in light of its issues with overtourism, housing security, and population depletion. Therefore, there must be a systemic approach to addressing overtourism and housing security while maintaining the freedom of mobility in Europe.

*Image Source*: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/07/02/travel/02travel-venice1/merlin_155672235_0dd1e2ac-e90d-4916-805e-e168bb8876f7-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp

Italian Translation:

La città di Venezia ha recentemente annunciato che i turisti giornalieri dovranno pagare una tassa di entrata tra i €3 to €10. Il provvedimento era a tempo atteso dai cittadini, i quali subivano gli effetti negativi dell’overtourism, ovvero il sovraffollamento turistico giornaliero. L’overtourism porta fastidio ma anche opportunità ai cittadini di Venezia. I turisti lasciano immondizia a ridosso dei canali, generando rischi sanitari e ambientali. I grandi gruppi turistici affollano i piccoli vicoli della città, rendendo difficili gli spostamenti per gli abitanti, particolarmente per gli anziani. Enormi navi da crociera hanno precedentemente danneggiato l’ecosistema della Laguna e l’ambiente storico della città, come i muri e porti storici, fino all’anno scorso in seguito al provvedimento che vietò l’arrivo di queste navi nei porti.

Venezia ha anche problemi con Airbnb, come molti luoghi turistici. Molte proprietà appartengono a proprietari provenienti da famiglie benestanti che vivono fuori dalla città ed affittano le loro case a coloro che passano per la città per un breve periodo, fallendo nella possibilità di contribuire alla vita economica e culturale della città. Inoltre, questo crea un problema di sicurezza abitativa, in quanto coloro che vivono o cercano di trasferirsi a Venezia hanno una scelta limitata e prezzi esorbitanti. “Se non risolviamo questi problemi, Venezia sarà come Disneyland - come un parco di turisti senza abitanti,” un attivista Veneziano, Matteo Sechi, commenta nel 2010. Infatti, nel 2016, Venezia registra meno di 55.000 abitanti, mentre in alta stagione in numero di turisti giornalieri supera i 60.000.

La nuova tassa sui turisti giornalieri ha l’obiettivo di stabilire “una soglia tra 40.000 e 50.000 visitatori al giorno”, dice Simone Venturini, assessore al turismo di Venezia. Coloro che passano una notte a Venezia non dovranno pagare la tassa, in quanto, dal 2011, è stata introdotta la tassa di soggiorno nel conto di hotel e Airbnb. C’è anche una lunga lista di esenzioni alla tassa per visita giornaliera. La lista include residenti di Venezia, residenti della regione Veneto, parenti fino al terzo grado di chiunque abiti a Venezia, coloro che lavorano e studiano a Venezia, chiunque vi sia nato o possieda una proprietà nella città, coloro che visitano Venezia con bus ufficiali o per competizioni sportive.

Una problematica che non è stata ancora propriamente analizzata riguarda come le restrizioni funzioneranno rispetto le leggi di mobilità dell’Unione Europea. Secondo la legge dell’UE, la libertà di movimento, residenza e lavoro dei cittadini europei nell’Unione deve essere garantita. Infatti, questa garantisce che in quanto turisti, “i cittadini dell’UE possano entrare e rimanere in un territorio di un altro Stato Membro fino a tre mesi senza essere soggetto a condizioni o formalità se non il requisito di possedere un valido documento di identità o passaporto.” Tecnicamente, la tassa per i turisti a Venezia potrebbe evadere la categorizzazione come "condizione o formalità” per entrare in un territorio di uno Stato Membro dell’Unione Europea, in quanto non impedisce ai visitatori di entrare, ma richiede il pagamento di una tassa all’arrivo. Inoltre, questo provvedimento agisce concretamente contro l’overtourism a cui Venezia è soggetta.

Ad ogni modo, affrontare questo problema con questa norma significa per la città di Venezia tracciare una linea legislativa tra il turista “buono” e quello “cattivo”, stabilendo chi è un vero Veneziano e chi no, per determinare chi di conseguenza è esente dalla tassa. Per esempio, anche se un cittadino europeo fosse cresciuto a Venezia, ma fosse nato altrove o se non avesse più famiglia nella città, allora dovrebbe comunque pagare la tassa turistica se volesse visitare la città per un solo giorno. Questo può apparire inappropriato, ma d’altro canto porterebbe al comune di Venezia grandi risorse e fondi per fronteggiare questa problematica. Al momento, la tassa per i visitatori giornalieri a Venezia, che per la maggior parte arrivano con grandi navi da crociera, sembra essere una misura adatta a scoraggiare il sovraffollamento turistico nella città. Comunque, se il numero di turisti che possono giornalmente entrare nella città pagando la tassa dovesse aumentare, certamente si incorrerebbe a diverse problematiche legali, morali e di sicurezza.

Venezia non è la sola città italiana ed europea ad affrontare le difficoltà poste dall’overtourism e dalla sicurezza abitativa, ma è una delle poche che affronta entrambe contemporaneamente ad una riduzione della sua popolazione. Firenze ha anche richiesto l'implementazione di restrizioni per Airbnb, mentre Barcellona pianifica di introdurre una tassa sull’inquinamento per passeggeri di crociera, così come Amsterdam. Ma mentre Barcellona ha una popolazione di 1.6 milioni di abitanti, Amsterdam ha 907,876 abitanti e Firenze ne conta 383,083, Venezia ne ha meno di 55,000. Nonostante ciò, Venezia non è l’unica con questi problemi, in quanto anche Dubrovnik, Croazia, ha recentemente aumentato la sua tassa sul pernottamento dei turisti a causa dell’overtourism, problemi di sicurezza abitativa e diminuzione della popolazione. Per questo, ci dovrebbe essere un approccio sistematico per risolvere i problemi legati al sovraffollamento turistico e alla sicurezza abitativa, cercando di preservare allo stesso tempo la libertà di movimento in Europa.

July 18, 2022 — No Comments

Russia’s Plans for War with Ukraine

Authors: Igor Shchebetun, Greta Bordin, Fabrizio Napoli and Davide Gobbicchi.

Why war is happening, what could justify an invasion of a sovereign independent state such as Ukraine? The only way to answer this question is to look at the situation from Russia's perspective. Because despite the raging battles on the ground, the war is not really about Ukraine, but about Russia and its pursuit of geopolitics.

This concerns the Kremlin and its relationship with the White House. One of Russia's initial demands for de - escalation shortly before the war began was for NATO to wind down its activities in Eastern Europe, and that is what it ultimately comes down to. Geopolitically, the war is more than Ukraine; it is Russia's attempt to restore a multipolar world order that has been lost as a gambler making a living off false hopes. Russia believes that either it must be a world power or it will not be. The collapse of the Soviet Union was a turning point in world geopolitics. No fewer than 14 Union republics seceded and declared sovereignty and independence. The Russian Federation lost centuries of geopolitical struggle. Russia was pushed back to the territorial boundaries of the 18th century. To this day, with the collapse of the USSR come broken promises, falling health care, industrial decline, and kinship ties replaced by hostility and all those glorious technological wonders and infrastructure projects left to rot.

Part of the Russian rationale for invading Ukraine is the core theory The core theory divides the world into three bodies, the first body being the world islands, which consist of Europe, Asia and Africa, the second body refers to shelf islands such as the British islands and the Japanese archipelago, while the third body points to America and Australia as distant islands within these parameters, focusing on the world islands because they are the most populous and resource-rich continent. Imagine if a superstate controlled politics from France to China, from Saudi Arabia to South Africa, this power would have the technological prowess of Europe, the resources of Africa, and the labor force of Asia, and nothing would stand in its way, so whoever controls the world island would have the means to dominate the globe, but within the world island.

There is a heart region that extends from the Volga River to the Yangtze and from the Arctic to the Caspian Sea. This heart region is the area from which one power can For example, Alexander Dugin, who is Russia's most influential political orator, has consistently argued for the creation of a Russian power in Eurasia, while the Russian political elite, known as the siloviki, still adhered to the focal point theory. From St. Petersburg to Kazan and Volgograd extends the Russian core 80 percent of the Russian population lives in this area, and most of the Kremlin's decisions are based on the needs and interests of its core, but the terrain itself is flat, and parts of Europe are part of Russia.

Image Source: https://www.deviantart.com/ynot1989/art/Russo-Ukrainian-War-Areas-of-Russian-Control-908348937

To put pressure on the Russian core from the Swedish invasion in the 18th century to the German invasions in the 20th century many European powers have tried to subdue Russia by going through the Baltics today but Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of Nato, making them beyond the reach of Russian enslavement, however, geopolitics dictates that Russia take over the Baltics if the opportunity presents itself, allowing Russians to connect the Kaliningrad region to mainland Russia. Control of the Baltics would also strengthen Russia's presence and power on the Baltic Sea as a whole, while the Carpathians represent a favorable bridgehead for the Russians, a buffer against the marching armies carpeting If the European plane represents a highway for invading armies, the Carpathians are a speed bump in the middle of that highway whose strategic depth is priceless, and this consideration is the ultimate justification for Russian invasion. Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the same time means that Russia's goal in Ukraine is to take over the whole country, so as much as the rhetoric focuses on the Donbass, Kharkov, Kiev, and Odessa, it misses the more important point from the Russian perspective, they need to advance as far as the Carpathian mountains.

So Russia needs all of Ukraine, but also all of Moldova, when Lukashenko spoke to members of the Belarusian Security Council, the map he used had an arrow going to the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria, so if Russia's military invasion of Ukraine were more successful, there would be fighting in Moldova. By and large, with the invasion of Ukraine, Russia sought to drop anchor, seizing all of Ukraine and eventually Moldavia. Russia would have restored some of the Soviet borders enough to reduce its European airplane flights to 600 kilometers. which is a significant reduction from the current 2,000 kilometers. Ideally, the Russians would like to advance as far west as they can, preferably capturing all of Poland and the Baltics. If Russia wins, the Baltics and Poland would be next, count on it.

Likewise, if Russia loses the war in Ukraine or can't get everything today, it will try again tomorrow, and no treaties and armistice will last long. Think of the European plane as a chess game where each player seeks to maximize the position of his pawns, strategically placing them the further east NATO moves into the European plane. Eastward on the European plane toward the Russian Federation, the more flexible its strategic planning becomes and the more room for error it gets. For example, to the east of the border with Ukraine, the flat terrain of the European plane continues uninterrupted for 750 kilometers to the shoreline of the Caspian Sea. The Volgograd Gap is fundamental to the existence of the Russian state; if a hostile force closes this gap, it will deprive Russia of its connections to the Caucasus, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, and NATO-allied Ukraine will no doubt try to exploit this vulnerability.

A Russian-controlled Ukraine would militarize Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states even more than it does now. Russia believes that it can elevate itself as a leading world power while securing its core demographic space, based on this for Russia it is either expand or die Russian politicians especially given the fact that political legitimacy depends on military conquest.

July 18, 2022 — No Comments

Shinzo Abe’s Legacy in the U.S.-China Competition

Author: Francesco Cirillo.

The Period of Shinzō Abe, who was assassinated on July 8, 2022, profoundly changed Japan's role in the Indo-Pacific chessboard and in the competition between the United States and the People's Republic of China. During the Abe years, foreign policy has put Chinese relations on two parallel and separate rails. The First, related to trade relations, focused on pragmatic cooperation aimed at rebuilding Sino-Japanese relations. The Second track, on the other hand, focusing mainly on international security issues, aimed to strengthen Japan's war potential to counter China's assertive action in several key East Asian areas, such as the East China Sea and the Senkaku Islands.

Another key point of Abe's legacy in Japanese foreign policy has been Tokyo's role in bringing the Taiwan dossier to Washington's attention. After stepping down as prime minister, Abe had stated that Taiwan's security was an integral and fundamental part of Japan's national security. In addition, Abe had criticized Washington's strategic ambiguity and that the latter needed to engage in defending Taipei. In fact, the former Japanese premier was seen, by the Taiwanese leadership, as a close ally of Taiwan and strong supporter of the de facto sovereignty of the Formosa Island.

In recent years there has always been talk about what imprint Abe would leave on Japanese politics both domestically and on the international chessboard. According to several analysts, the real political testament that Abe leaves to Japan was the change in his military policy and the role of Japanese defense as an instrument of international-political projection. His vision of an autonomous Japan in its defensive capabilities was only possible with a program of rearmament of Japan's self-defense forces and in an attempt to bring to fruition Japan's constitutional reform on the thorny issue of Article 9 of Japan's constitutional charter.

*Image Source*: https://pixabay.com/photos/flag-banner-nation-emblem-country-2526497/

Thanks to Abe's policies, Japan's role, with Washington's support, has seen consolidation in the Indo-Pacific region with the aim of countering Beijing's geo-economic rise. The current name of Indo-Pacific was coined back in 2007 by Shinzō Abe himself, who with foresight understood that the hegemonic clash would take place between Beijing and Washington in the Pacific. To date, the legacy in Abe's foreign policy consists of the process of returning Tokyo's defense policies to normalcy and greater Japanese engagement in the Indo-Pacific with the consolidation of historic alliances with Australia and India.

The demise of Japan's longest-serving prime minister in the post-1945 period leaves a heavy burden but a solid foundation for his successors to be able to continue the work of policy reform on Japan's military affairs even in light of the recent state of competition in which the United States and the People's Republic of China find themselves and the sensitive Taiwan dossier, which for Tokyo falls under as an affair related to Japan's national security. One has always wondered what Abe's legacy was; to date, his main political achievement is the radical change of thebasis of Japan's foreign policy and its defense policy with the ultimate goal of deleting Article 9 from the current constitution, a legacy of military defeat in World War II.

July 16, 2022 — No Comments

Analysing the Security of Mega Sporting Events in the 21st Century

Authors: Shams Jouve and Saron M. Obia.

Introduction: illustration of insecurity issues in the mega sporting events

Improving security in mega sporting events is a major issue since the terrorist attacks of the Munich Olympic Games on September 5, 1972. These attacks, committed by the Palestinian militant group Black September on the Israeli Olympic team members, reflect a complete lack of security in the Olympic Village and an insufficient preparation of the police forces. Indeed, the terrorists were able to access the quarters of the Israeli Olympic team in the Olympic Village to cause the death of two people and hold nine hostages. The second part of the attack took place at the Fürstenfeldbruck airbase, after the authorities faked an agreement to help the terrorists fly safely to the Middle East. The police organized an ambush, which quickly turned into a disaster because of the many errors in the planification and execution of the operation.

Nearly ten years later, the European Cup Final of May 29, 1985, also suffered from a concerning lack of police resources and preparation. The authorities weren’t expecting the hundreds of Liverpool supporters, nor the high quantity of alcohol consumed. During the match, Italian supporters were attacked by hooligans but couldn’t leave the closed stadium until they broke a wall. As a result, 39 victims and an exclusion of English football clubs from all European Cups for a period of five years. Another alarming event for stadia security happened in 2015 at the Stade de France. In fact, the stadium explosions were the first terrorist attacks of the November 13 series. France was in a climate of fear after the Charlie Hebdo attacks of January 7, which should have increased the vigilance of authorities. However, the prevention of a possible terrorist attack was clearly insufficient because three kamikazes exploded around the stadium, causing one death, and injuring 63 people.

This is a concerning issue, and even if its causes have been identified so far, this paper will argue that security strategies still need to be improved to guarantee the security of participants especially in relation to the densification of security forces around the stadium for each encounters of the competition; proper distance of filtering posts; crowd management, the prohibition of ticket sales and Covid19 tests in the vicinity of the stadium in addition to a variety of other security measures such as the prohibition on selling alcohol and light weapons. This paper highlights four main causes of insecurity during mega sporting events. Those are: ticketing, filtering and access to stadium, health, and terrorism. The paper will then move to provide two examples where possible improvements have been made.

Causes of insecurity during mega sporting events

Ticketing

One of the major aspects of the evolution of technology is the changing patterns of crimes. With the proliferation of new tools, hackers and fans are able to duplicate or produce fake tickets in order to gain access in to the stadium during friendly or international encounter. For example, massive ticket fraud incident before the kick-off of Liverpool- Real Madrid final of the 2022 Champions League in France. In Sub Saharan African, fans wait for kick-off of the match to pay less for ticket (if the ticket is 3000, one can pay 1500) or even access with the help of supervisor without paying. This is a reason for several security incidents during sporting events in SSA, as stewards try to restraint persons from disorder, and even theft. More so, some security agents and administrative personnel’s when in uniform give their badge to friends to easily access the stadium.

Filtering and access to stadium

The distance between filtering post (security duty stations) are usually close to the stadium, when an incident occurs, even innocent persons are victims. The stadium should provide access for women with kids, persons living with disabilities, fans, and normal football lovers in order to limit stampede and crowd crushing. An example, is the stampede during the African Cup of Nations in Cameroon, precisely on 24 January 2022, during the match between the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon and the Comoros national team, which occurred at the south entrance of the Olembe stadium before the kick-off, resulting in 8 deaths and several injuries. As such, security stations most be provide several meters from the stadium, as well machines and experts to control access badges.

Health

When an individual is well diagnosing or tested, the problem is half solved. With the Covid19 pandemic, the world went on its knees, as mega sporting events organizers limited the number of entry in to stadia. In Europe as in Africa, there are always unscrupulous individuals, who organised business even on medical issues. In the case of Covid19, some pay medical personnel to give them the card without taking the vaccine. With the incident during the qualifier match which opposed Nigeria to Ghana (in Nigeria), which after which fans stormed the pitch, attack Ghanaian fans, if some were not vaccinated, or there are asthmatic patients, the result will be critical.

Terrorism

The globalization era has initiated a new wave of insecurity, that on mega sporting events. The targeted attack on Stade de France, Paris in 2015, where three detonations at 9.20pm,9.30pm and 9.53pm local time were heard during a friend encounter between Germany and France, challenged the level of intelligence alert of the country. The field which hosted 80000 sport fans had no idea about attack believing the attack to be fireworks. Which at the end of the encounter, fans gather at the pitch, with three exits open. The president Hollande convened an emergency cabinet meeting to reconfigure the security of the territory, from border security to state of emergency. Despite this security alert, France continues to encounter several challenges in securing mega sporting events.

Furthermore, in 2018, a poster designed by al-Nur Media Center and published on Telegram, crusading for aspirants and other jihadists, showing flags of countries competing in the FIFA world Cup with text ‘Choisis ta Cible’ (Choose your target). Terror group further produced a graphic of terrorist outside of a stadium armed with a gun and explosives.

Measures adopted to limit insecurity

Case of Cameroon regards to AFCON

Drawing from the incident on 24 January 2022, during the match between the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon and the Comoros national team, which a deadly stampede occurred at the south entrance of the Olembe stadium, resulting in 8 deaths and several injuries. The state machinery was fast to adopt new security measure in order to face the challenge and on recommendation of the president of CAF. The densification of security forces around the stadium for each encounters of the competition, in order to avoid any stampede and ease crowd management, following the incident during the encounter between Cameroon national team and the Comoros national team at the Olembe Stadium.

The state provided proper distance of filtering posts in order to control the crowd and lead them in to the stadium through different access to different stadia during the competition in Cameroon. It should be noted that, several spots where announced on national radio station by the Cameroon football federation on how to obtain a ticket, as such, the prohibition of ticket sales around stadia was to limit ticket fraud.

More so, Covid19 tests were prohibited in the vicinity of the stadium, and additional safety and security measures step-up. The prevalence of corruption in Sub Saharan Africa and the low salary of medical personnel, was a strategic threat to the competition. Those chosen for the event, to verify or administer the Covid19 vaccine, engage in illicit activities. Individuals paid and enter the stadium without receiving the vaccine. The state had to recommended special medical centers, in order to limit staff dishonesty at the level of health institutions.

Case of France, with regards to the Champions League Finals

Securing mega sporting events might be sometimes challenging, but the reaction of law enforcement during incidents are crucial for the state. Responding to the incident (distribution of fake tickets and inadequate crowd management, which resulted in women and children blown by police tear-gas) before the kick-off of the Champions League Finals 2022 contested Liverpool and Real Madrid. French interior minister Gerald Darmanin attests to the Financial Times, of massive fraud on an industrial scale of ticket.

French prosecutors are investigating the incident link to ticket fraud, and the UEFA, European football governing council has been requested to discuss on the issue. However, a meeting between the French football federation, law enforcement officers, interior minister and representatives to adopt new strategy to avoid similar incidents ahead of the preparation to host the Rugby World Cup next year and Summer Olympics in 2024 in France.

Lessons learnt from the 2022 champions league final incident in France, appeals for a new strategy for mega sporting events. With focus on the Rugby World Cup and Summer Olympics in France 2024, the state will need to join efforts with private and international organizations like Interpol, to help profile the different fans of national teams, provide restrictive zones and develop crowd management strategy and limit ticket fraud. The international criminal police, through project stadia, would help educate French law enforcement officers and stewards on securing mega sporting events.

July 3, 2022 — No Comments

Amazonia: A strategic territory for Human Trafficking and illegal mining

Authors: Beatrice Tommasi and Marta Pace.

The Event

On June 5, in the municipality of Atalaia do Norte located in the state of Amazonas, two people disappeared: namely, Bruno Pereira, the indigenous activist member of the non-governmental organization Coordenação da Organização Indígena União dos Povos Indígenas do Vale do Javari (UNIVAJA), and Dom Phillips, an English journalist and contributor to The Guardian. According to UNIVAJA and the Observatory of Human Rights of Isolated Indigenous Peoples and Recent Contact (OPI), the last registration of the two occurred on June 5 in the morning while they were travelling on a small boat between the community of São Rafael and the town of Atalaia do Norte. After ten days of search and the involvement of the army, navy, and police, on June 16, the bodies of Phillips and Pereira were found.

*Image Source*: https://pixabay.com/photos/fire-forest-fire-children-fear-4429478/

The double world of the Amazon

These killings do not seem to be an accident and unveil serious security issues in the region. The concerned area is the far west of the Amazonas and condenses serious conflicts, both from a social and an environmental point of view. On one side, the area hosts the largest number of indigenous people in voluntary isolation in the world. On the other side, it is a strategic region for drug trafficking, and it is crossed by an international cocaine transit route which goes from Peru to distribute in Brazil, Europe and Africa. Moreover, the already tense situation in the region is worsened by the presence of illegal loggers and fishermen whose activities are profoundly altering the ecosystem of the Amazon rainforest.

All these activities in the region, carried out mainly within the Indigenous Land Vale do Javari, witness the inability and omission of the bodies responsible for the inspection and protection of indigenous territories. As a result, this power vacuum is filled by the presence of the main criminal organizations, who diversify their activities and cause an increase in violent actions against and murders of those who oppose their main interests in the region. According to a study conducted by Mato Grosso do Sul prosecutor Ricardo Pael Ardengui on the impact of transnational organized crime on indigenous communities, environmental crimes - typical of the entire Amazon - have become another mean of profit for organized crime, which has consolidated the drug trafficking route through the Amazon. In this regard, it is worthy to mention that in the last few years, Amazonia has seen a sharp increase in crimes involving drug trafficking, deforestation, and broader violence against indigenous peoples.

The growing action of criminal groups is the result of the fact that the Brazilian state lacks a compact and effective strategy aimed at fighting deforestation and drug trafficking activities. Indeed, institutions have failed in preventing the spread of criminal organizations, which are now active on various fronts: from the environmental one with massive deforestation, to the paramilitary one with kidnapping and political assassinations. Initially, the criminal activities of the various factions of the region were aimed at using the territory to create new routes for the drug trade, and environmental crimes were used to open new transit areas and alternative routes. Nowadays, the illegal exploitation of forest resources, such as gold and wood, takes place to expand the profits of organized crime.

Criminal organizations

Criminal activities in the area see the participation of various factions and organizations. Initially, the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) - a criminal organization founded in 1993 by inmates in the prison of Taubaté (São Paulo) - clashed with the Família do Norte in Amazonas - another organized crime faction present in the region, resulting in a bloody struggle for the control of the region. In recent years, the PCC has consolidated its control over the area by maintaining close alliances with other criminal organizations, such as the Guardioes do Estado and the Amigo dos Amigos, and expanding internationally through the creation of new partnerships with other Latin American criminal groups. Moreover, the fact that they act at the Triple Frontier - a tri-border area along the junction of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay - has given crime a more entrepreneurial and broader vision, favoring timber smuggling and mining. Within the Amazon, particularly the Atalaia region, there is also the presence of other criminal groups resulting from the break-up of the Família do Norte, the PCC and Bolivian and Peruvian drug trafficking organizations. Consequently, all these conflicts threaten the right and the choice of various groups and ethnicities of having non-contact with the non-indigenous and even indigenous populations of the Javari Valley.

Conclusion

Furthermore, this threat has been exacerbated by the rise of evangelical churches and the interest of missionaries in evangelizing isolated indigenous people. It was reinforced by the Bolsonaro government's appointment in 2020 of the pastor, anthropologist and former missionary Ricardo Lopes Dias in the position of coordinator of General Coordination of Isolated and Recently Contacted Indigenous Peoples at FUNAI (Fundação Nacional do Índio), a Brazilian governmental protection agency for Amerindian interests and culture. It was this appointment that replaced the indigenous activist Bruno Pereira, defender of the right of indigenous people to remain isolated. At the time, a group of 14 indigenous people denounced the dismissal of Bruno, one of FUNAI’s most experienced members concerning isolated peoples. This fact was already a harbinger of the deep problems in protecting these peoples by the Brazilian government headed by President Bolsonaro.

July 3, 2022 — No Comments

Food Uncertainty: The overlooked consequences of Putin’s actions

Author: Miguel Jiménez.

In this increasing globalized world interdependencies are strengthened, and countries become very import-dependent to satisfy its citizens’ daily needs. Obviously, some of these needs are more important than others. For instance, the achievement of food security is one of them and it represents one of the biggest challenges of our time. Developing countries suffer from this illness the most, and this issue is often overlooked. Climate change and Covid 19 have made this goal even more unreachable by disrupting supply chains and fostering autarky. The current invasion is the cherry on top as it has closed down a major stream of food imports for low-income countries.

Beyond the Two Main Actors

June 24^th marks the 4^th month of Russian invasion in Ukraine. Roughly 120 days of ongoing humanitarian crisis which have resulted in the death of 4,266 civilians and the displacement of millions to neighboring countries. Negative economic effects have been even more immediate, with the markets of several sectors plummeting. The biggest toll is undoubtedly being suffered by Ukraine and Russia. According to the IMF, by the end of 2022, the former is expected to suffer a severed doble digit drop in GDP and the latter a large contraction.

However, besides the negative effects that the invader and the invaded are suffering, as well as the energy crisis especially striking Europe, the interruption in the supply and markets of crops due to the invasion may result in a major threat to food security in the developing world. Disruptions in the global food supply are not a new phenomenon. Between 2002 and 2008, the nominal price of food doubled as a result of droughts in food-exporting countries, food export bans and high energy prices. Nevertheless, current disruptions are unprecedented if the destructive impact of the invasion is coupled with other hunger-drivers such as COVID 19’s long-lasting effects and the devastating escalation of climate shocks.

To put it into context, Russia and Ukraine are agricultural production powerhouses. Together, they supply 12% of the world’s traded calories, mainly composed of wheat, barley, maize and sunflower oil. Yet, when one analyses the share that this represents in some of the importing countries, the strong dependence of the developing world comes to the surface. According to the FAO, 26 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for at least 50 percent of their wheat imports.

The Enemies of Trade

These agriculture-market disruptions are caused by two major factors. Firstly, in order to erode the resistance put up by Ukrainians, Russia has been targeting all aspects of Ukraine’s agriculture with the intention of crippling a major source of the country’s income. Secondly, aside from hindering production, harvested crops have few ways of reaching offshore as Russia set a naval blockade in one of the main trading routes, the Black Sea. Thus, by March, record highs in the food market were reached, more concretely, in the FAO’s Cereal Price Index, Vegetable Oil Price Index and Meat Price Index.

Seeking for alternative producers would be the most coherent move by countries in need, as we are currently seeing with the restructuring of the energy trade. There are certainly alternative producers which under “normal circumstances” could step up and take care of the lack of supply. However, to make matters worse, offsetting production shortages and the disrupted supply channels is prevented by two reasons.

On the one hand, the effects of climate change are becoming a major barrier for stable crop production. For instance, the delayed rains in China and extreme temperatures in India, largest and second largest wheat producers in the world respectively, are sapping yields in breadbaskets. On the other hand, rising inflationary pressures, aggravated by the economic sanctions implemented to punish the invasor, have limited fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, inhibiting western farmers to boost productivity and capitalize on higher global prices.

From Coup d’ État to Devastating Famines

The mismatch between supply and demand is likely to extend to middle-income countries as well. The deployment of unprecedented fiscal packages during the pandemics to ensure a social safety net exhausted middle-income countries’ savings making them exceptionally poorly placed to cope with increased food insecurity. The combination of these factors created a weak balance which has been tilted by the invasion, resulting in civil unrest and devastating famines that are just starting.

Analysts are drawing parallels with the Arab spring revolts. Precisely one of the triggers for the outbreak of the coup d’état back in 2011 was attributed to high food prices. Currently, this factor has ultimately ousted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, incentivized the rise of deadly protests in Peru, and increased the likelihood of civil unrest by the end of the year in countries such as Philippines, Argentina and Tunisia.

Nevertheless, these consequences are mild relative to the massive famines that this invasion is causing and can cause in low-income countries. Food insecurity is a recurring trend in those parts of the world, and poor households tend to spend more of their budget on food. For instance, a sub-Saharan household spends up to 40% of their income in food. Therefore, a slight increase in such inelastic goods translates into a major shock for the household income. According to the FAO, food insecurity will worsen throughout this year in 20 “hunger hotspots and are in need of urgent humanitarian actions. Hunger hotspots stand for places where hunger is most severe. These countries tend to carry the burden of ongoing religious or ethnic-prone domestic conflicts as well. South Sudan, Nigeria and Ethiopia are perhaps the best examples of this perfect storm.

How do We Bring Back the Balance?

With this devastating scenario ahead, what is to be done to reestablish food supply chains and resume production? Attempting to restore damaged crops in highly disputed areas appears to be an impossible task for the time being, if we consider that the Ukrainian government forecasted the invasion to last until winter. The end of the war would not make the Black sea route viable in months either, as Ukraine has defended its coastline with mines and strategically sunk ships. What’s worse, reinforcing the creation of alternative trade routes does not seem viable as Ukraine’s rail system is wider than the EU’s, meaning loads would have to be switched to different wagons. Furthermore, grain wouldn’t even be reaching the places where it is needed most. These factors lead to the conclusion that the short-term solution for avoiding unprecedented famines ought to be outside of Ukraine.

Without overlooking Russia’s role in creating this situation, easing up on sanctions and switching the final use of crops may alleviate it. Firstly, the export of fertilizers account for less than 5 percent of Russia’s GDP yet it deeply has an impact on farmers’ decisions on what to grow, and in turn, prevents meeting developing countries’ demand. Thus, lifting sanctions on fertilizers could improve the situation. Secondly, about 10 percent of all grains are used to make biofuel and 18 percent of vegetable oil go to make biodiesel. To put it into perspective, that percentage of vegetable oil contains an amount of calories sufficient to feed more than 320 million people per year. Weakening biofuel mandates just like Finland and Croatia have done, should become the immediate trend.

One last resort is to rely on one of the most used development tools, aid. The US announced more than $320 million in humanitarian assistance in the horn of Africa. Yet even this falls short, as the amount of aid now is worth much less than a few years ago due to the ongoing inflation.

Conclusion

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the last event of a chain of events that have worsened the very fragile state of the developing world. The complexity of the situation makes finding a solution very tough and compromising already existing alliances. In spite of the fact that lifting sanctions may seem controversial, millions dying from starvation far outweighs avoiding financing Putin’s war. Even more if some of those restrictions, such as fertilizers and food, account for very little of Russia’s GDP and so much for millions of developing countries’ households.

June 18, 2022 — No Comments

Food Security at Risk in Africa

Author: Alessandra Gramolini.

Before and during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

Russia and Ukraine are not only the world’s biggest producers of wheat, they have also been the cheapest exporters on the market. This made them very attractive to low-income countries. Over 40% of wheat consumed in Africa usually comes from Ukraine and Russia. The war interrupted global markets and trade flows to Africa, increasing even more food prices in the region. Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea have been widely blocked for exports since the conflict began. Kyiv and its allies blame Moscow for blocking the ports. Even countries that import little from the two countries are indirectly impacted by higher world prices for key commodities.

Before the war in Ukraine, African countries were already struggling with the increase of food prices due to extreme climate and weather events and also after two year of Covid-19 pandemic,. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, global food prices have reached new heights. Five weeks into the Ukraine war, disruptions are more severe and food prices are even surpassing the levels of the 2008 global financial crisis. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index, affirmed that international wheat prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in 2022. The March index is the highest it has been since the measure was created in the 1990s. In 2020 alone, Africa imported $4 billion and $2.9 billion worth of agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine. With this war in Ukraine, about 20 million people in the Sahel and West Africa do not have access to sufficient food.

In Egypt, wheat is the main food item, and the Egyptian government imports about 50 to 60 percent of its cereal from Russia and Ukraine, despite the government’s efforts to diversify imports following the 2008 global food crisis. Egypt had to borrow three billion dollars from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (Itfc), an Islamic finance instrument based in Saudi Arabia. Countries like Tunisia imported 50% of their grain needs exclusively from Russia and Ukraine. For the moment, Tunisia claims to have stocks, but to avoid food riots, as happened in the Arab Spring, basic products are subsidized and controlled by the government. Algeria, the second largest African wheat consumer after Egypt has also imposed moderate prices.

Additionally, according to the UN, Russia is the highest exporter of nitrogen fertilizer and the second-highest exporter of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer globally. Several African countries rely on importing these Russian fertilizers, including Cameroon, Ghana, Senegal and Kenya. But following severe economic sanctions against Russia, its ability to sell fertilizer globally has taken down, precipitating a major shortage. In Kenya, farmers are scaling back on farming because of the exorbitant fertilizer prices that would certainly affect their profits. Others plan to avoid fertilizing their farms, especially olive and orange groves farmers. This will lower production and, of course, the quality. The pressure and prices will likely increase further as the war continues, raising food security concerns, with citizens beginning to feel the impact.

*Image Source*: https://www.wfp.org/news/hunger-west-africa-reaches-record-high-decade-region-faces-unprecedented-crisis-exacerbated

Alarm from aid agencies

Aid agencies have also felt the impact of rising prices. The World Food Program (WFP) used to buy more than half of its grain from Ukraine and Russia. The organization now spends an additional $71 million a month to reach the same number of people it did before the conflict. That money could be used to provide daily food rations to four million people for a month. The activities of the WFP in West and Central Africa have started to suffer too. The aid agency supports national school feeding programmes that run independently. But some governments are now asking the WFP for help, because they can no longer afford some food products. The WFP also distributes cash for people in the region to buy food, but with soaring prices this is not an effective solution.

A recent FAO-WFP report issued today calls for urgent humanitarian action in 20 ‘hunger hotspots’ where acute hunger is expected to worsen during summer 2022. The effects of the war in Ukraine are expected to be particularly severe where economic instability and high prices combine with drops in food production due to climate events such as recurrent droughts or flooding.

“We are deeply concerned about the combined impacts of overlapping crises jeopardizing people’s ability to produce and access foods, pushing millions more into extreme levels of acute food insecurity,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu. “We are in a race against time to help farmers in the most affected countries, including by rapidly increasing potential food production and boosting their resilience in the face of challenges.”

Qu Dongyu called on Mediterranean countries to work together to avoid the risks to food security aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “We must keep our world food trade system open and ensure that agri-food exports are not limited or taxed”, he said a few days ago during a summit on the food crisis in the Mediterranean area. He then illustrated the main steps on which this cooperation should focus on: greater investments in the countries most affected by the current increase in food prices; reduction of food losses and waste; better and more efficient use of natural resources; and finally, great attention to technological and social innovations that can significantly reduce the losses of the agricultural market.

What are the consequences?

Some analysts argue the Kremlin is hoping that a possible food crisis will put political pressure on the West by provoking new refugee flows towards Europe from food-insecure countries in the Middle East and Africa.

“The situation is forcing hundreds of thousands of people to move to different communities and to live with host families who are already living in difficult conditions themselves. There is not enough food, let alone food that is nutritious enough for children. We must help them urgently because their health, their future and even their lives are at risk,” said Philippe Adapoe, Save the Children's director for West and Central Africa. The war is starting to push families to the brink of survival and increasing also the risk of violence against women. Hibo Aden, women's rights officer at ActionAid Somaliland, said the situation has become so desperate for some families that girls are forced to marry in exchange for food and water.

The presence of unstable conditions and civil wars further aggravate the scenario. Many people in African countries will have problems accessing better hygiene, health, or school conditions, given that the family's spending power will be dedicated to the purchase of food at higher prices. Furthermore, phenomena of internal conflict are beginning to be seen, with countries such as Nigeria, South Africa or Ethiopia, which have chosen to restrict some food exports, blocking supply chains and trade, thus creating other problems.

In conclusion, the forecasts for the future are somewhat catastrophic. In these conditions, hunger will increase at high rates and will be more and more deadly. If the international community does not act in support of rural communities affected by hunger, the degree of devastation will be dangerous.

June 18, 2022 — No Comments

AI goes to War: Observations from the Battlefields in Ukraine

Author: Andrea Rebora, Federica Montanaro and Oleg Abdurashitov.

Although the concept of artificial intelligence is quite complex and nuanced, many people imagine its use in warfare as a brutal slaughter conducted by evil robots. The reality is much different, and the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine offers a glimpse of what AI is being used for on today’s battlefields.

Researchers and military experts have spent years trying to visualize and understand military operations conducted with the support of artificial intelligence systems. One of the most prominent examples is the use of lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs), systems designed to locate, identify, and engage targets based on programmed information without requiring constant human control. Russia is using its KUB-BLA during the invasion in Ukraine, a loitering munition (commonly known as kamikaze drone) designed to identify and attack ground targets using AI technology.^[1]However, the Russian aerial campaign leveraging these drones appears weak overall, and its fleet surprisingly small.^[2] On the Ukrainian side, the Bayraktar TB2 drone fleet arguably appears to be its most potent force,^[3] alongside the “kamikaze drone fleet,” with an estimated 20-30% of the registered Ukrainian kills to be the result of the successful employment of these systems.^[4]

Another application envisioned on the battlefield is the use of AI to automate the mobility of vehicles, such as tanks and vessels, and make them more effective at identifying routes and prioritizing target selection and engagement.

AI is being increasingly included in the military decision-making process, from the straightforward calculation of aircraft or missile trajectories to the identification of targets during sensitive operations via automated target recognition. In 2021, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall confirmed that AI had already been used during at least one “live operational kill chain,” demonstrating its effectiveness on the battlefield.^[5]

Finally, the idea of artificial intelligence being applied to cyber operations is a thought that keeps many professionals up at night. Cyberattacks have already become one the most pervasive issues of this decade and, if enhanced by AI, they could be used to cause significant damage and potentially destabilize entire countries.^[6]

The war in Ukraine, however, seems to be a far cry from swarms of unmanned drones and autonomous vehicles clashing with robotic systems of the adversary, as envisioned by several researchers of future warfare^[7]. While AI algorithms reveal themselves on the battlefield, they do so in far more mundane aspects.

The most illustrative example is the use of Ukraine’s specialist application for artillery (GIS Arta), which combines the conventional geo-mapping tools with the ability to sift information on the enemy’s location from a variety of sources and data types, including military and civilian drones and smartphones, GPS trackers and radars.^[8] The intuitive and data-agnostic system has since become a force multiplier for the outgunned Ukrainian artillery, increasing the precision of their strikes.

The algorithmic geo-mapping itself, however, is not new and both high-resolution maps and image and processing algorithms are widely available and used among a range of civilian apps - from online maps to food delivery. The GIS Arta allows the blending of imagery intelligence (IMINT) and signals intelligence (SIGINT) feeds into an actionable solution for cheap and proves the ingenuity of Ukrainian developers and army in adopting civilian AI and machine learning technology for military use, but also highlights that the use of technology is shaped by the conditions and demands of the battlefield, not vice versa.

Russia, in turn, claims it is working on updating its reconnaissance and reconnaissance-strike drones with “electronic [optical and infrared] images of military equipment adopted in NATO countries” obtained through the application of neural network training algorithms.^[9] With images and videos of NATO-supplied equipment requested by Ukraine widely available on the internet in almost ready-made datasets, the use of neural networks may be justified. Given that both Russia and Ukraine rely on human operators of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), whose ability to identify snippets of objects is dramatically outmatched by the image recognition technology, such an AI-augmented approach may lead to better prioritization and increased accuracy of the Russian strikes targeting.

Another example is the use of AI-enabled face recognition algorithms largely thanks to the ubiquity of visual content, ranging from smartphone videos and security camera feeds to social media pages.^[10] The use of face recognition ranges from inspecting people and vehicles at checkpoints to identifying the potential perpetrators of war crimes. While lacking the immediacy often required on a battlefield, face recognition may become an essential deterring component of warfare preventing the most horrendous crimes on the battlefield.

The use and credibility of such technology are not without controversy since AI algorithms are prone to bias and software flaws. In particular, the first person officially accused by Ukraine of war crimes in Bucha, who was caught on camera in a courier service office in a Belarus town used by Russian soldiers to send looted goods back to Russia, is a Belarusian citizen who vehemently denies even serving in the military.^[11]

What emerges from this evolving environment is that the employment of AI on the Ukrainian battlefield is very human-centered and not very different from what has been seen in other conflicts. Despite the technological progress and innovations, there is still no clear evidence of the use of fully autonomous weapons in Ukraine. The presence of human beings “in the loop” still prevents us from finding a paradigmatic change in the employment of AI in this conflict. Artificial intelligence is leveraged as an instrument, which shapes and facilitates decision making and enables the implementation of decisions already taken, but is still not allowed to, or capable of, making autonomous decisions.

Despite the relatively limited use of advanced AI systems, the conflict in Ukraine provides a significant amount of operational and technical information. On the operational side, AI systems are being examined, tested, and deployed in various degrees and scope of application, allowing researchers and officials to understand the advantages and challenges in leveraging such systems in active conflict. On the technical side, the data collected such as images, audio, and geographical coordinates, can be used to train and improve current and future systems capable of, for example, recognizing camouflaged enemy vehicles, identifying optimal attack and counterattack routes, and predicting enemy movements.

The conflict in Ukraine provides an overview of the AI military capabilities of the two countries and the level of risk they are willing to accept with their top-of-the-line AI systems. After all, the cost-benefit analysis associated with using autonomous weapons in low-intensity conflict is much different from using the same weapons in open conflict, where the risk of losing just one AI-powered system is very high and particularly expensive. The military invasion of Ukraine is unfortunately not over yet, but militaries around the world will study its execution and aftermath for years to understand how to leverage AI systems for offensive and, most importantly, defensive applications.

June 18, 2022 — No Comments

Will METO be the new NATO?

Author: Shahin Modarres.

As the light at the end of the tunnel of revitalizing the JCPOA grows weaker the tension between Iran and the international community rises fiercely. Tension can be analyzed on two levels, regional level, and international level. On a regional level whilst Iran's regional competitors express their concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program, Israel has been applying a drastically different approach, a completely physical approach that dances on the edge of initiating a direct regional conflict. For the past month a notable number of high-ranking officers and scientists within the IRGC and Ministry of defense have been targeted and assassinated in the streets of Iran, almost all targets played an important role in the country's nuclear and missile program. Even though the Israeli officials never officially accepted the responsibility but Israel remains to be the main guess behind the calls. At the same time reports have been registered regarding threats against Israeli citizens in Turkey and Thailand. Earlier Israel's minister of foreign affairs asked all citizens to evacuate Istanbul immediately because of a series of imminent threats against their lives.

On another proxy level, the shelling of Iranian infrastructures in Syria by the Israeli Air Force has been intensified. Drones trying to reach Israeli territories through Iraq's airspace have been shot and there have been reports of drone attacks on safe sites of Israel's intelligence operations according to Iranian authorities. Constant cyber war has been going on as well, every now and then, Iranian or Israeli hackers have been claiming victory by accessing infrastructures or personal data from the rival. A full encounter between the countries is now more threatening than ever. That is the main reason why both actors are reinforcing their teams in anticipation.

*Image Source*: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/center-for-the-middle-east/

One of Iran's main bargaining leverages has been its regional influence. A military influent formed of mostly Shiite militant groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen running alongside vast support of Sunni groups such as Hamas for years gave Iran an upper hand to proceed with its regional proxy wars but what has changed? Iran's influence in the region has been limited mainly because of two reasons, a technological shift in the defense paradigm and a realistically Machiavellian perception of diplomacy. The aerial defense system known as the "Iron Dome" by Israel has definitely been a game-changer redefining traditional defensive methods through advanced approaches to countering missile attacks. On the diplomatic level, the "Abraham Accords" were none other than a realist perception of "my enemy's enemy can be my friend!" The growing angle of difference between Iran and Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia itself lead the tension between Israel and Arab countries to decrease gradually. Now a new form of an alliance is being formed between them. An alliance that some interpret as a Middle Eastern form of NATO; is METO.

A few days ago Israel's minister of defense called for a new alliance between Israel and its Arab partners against Iran led by the United States. It appears that the defensive circle against Iran is getting tighter but at the same time Iran has decided to deactivate the surveillance set by the IAEA within its nuclear facilities. President Biden's trip to the Middle East will happen soon during which he will visit Israel and Saudi Arabia. Against all odds, the Biden administration appears to be considering its foreign policy legacy none other than peacebuilding between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hence, his trips will play a crucial role that may affect and form Middle East's near future on different levels.

A Middle Eastern Treaty Organization(METO) on a dynamic scale may only live with the blessing of the United States. But on a regional level, actors are consciously trying to build an independent alliance as well. Almost each and every member of the new alliance at some point during the past two decades has been unhappy regarding US policies in the region hence traces of a collective will to have independent strong regional alliances are quite clear amongst actors. There is already talk regarding Israel sharing parts of its "Iron Dome" technology with Arab partners. Whilst wealthy Arab partners can generously invest in the Israeli technological and scientific R&D, all allies may benefit from the results.

On the other end, Iran has shown a Russo-Oriental turn towards developing military and security cooperation with China and Russia. Also, there has been a fast development of the county's Aerospatiale program, particularly in regards to ballistic missiles program, drones, and satellites. Even though the Iranian economy is facing its most fragile state expenses regarding the doctrines of "Defense and Influence" have indeed increased.

To anticipate the outcome of this equation we all need to think in a Machiavellian context, to simply interpret the equation based on each country's national interest. Will the US join the coalition to form METO? Will Russia and China support their supposed ally if Iran's nuclear program once again ends up in the United Nations Security Council? And eventually, the final unfortunate question is, will we face another devastating war in the Middle East?

June 8, 2022 — No Comments

Analysis of the nexus between Human Trafficking and Terrorism.

Author: Arianna Caggiano.

This is a critical commentary of the research paper launched by the OSCE Organization: Trafficking in Human Beings and Terrorism. Where and How They Intersect: Analysis and Recommendations for More Effective Policy Response.

Human Trafficking as a tactic of terrorist groups

Over the years, human trafficking has increasingly become a modus operandi used by terrorist groups to finance and carry out their activities. To this extent, as human trafficking constitutes a crime that is usually perpetrated by organized criminal groups, some scholars have stressed that the “crime-terror nexus” implies that both criminal and terrorist organizations might cooperate with each other in the furtherance of their respective goals. Despite the increasing use of organised crime-related tactics deployed by terrorists, in analysing the current legal framework in international law when it comes to trafficking in human beings and terrorism there is still no existing treaty or convention dealing with the nexus between the two phenomena. On the basis of the OSCE paper launched in 2021 on the nexus between human trafficking and terrorism, this article will try to critically evaluate from a juridical and legal point of view the analysis and findings developed by the OSCE on this matter.

Comparing Legal and Policy Frameworks of Anti-Trafficking and anti-terrorism Mechanisms

When it comes to the definition of the human trafficking’s legal framework, it is worth emphasizing that it was not until 2000 that a first definition of trafficking in human beings was given in the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, better known as the Palermo Protocol. The adoption of the Protocol can be considered as a watershed moment for the legal framework of human trafficking: as of today, it counts 173 signatory States and it can be defined, thus, as almost a universal ratification. A further key role in combating human trafficking is played by regional trafficking treaties, which complement the obligations upon signatory States, especially with reference to victims’ protection. Indeed, as stressed by the OSCE research, a major principle guiding anti-trafficking legislations and policies is the principle of non-punishment of victims of trafficking, according to which Member States are obliged to «assess the individual situation of persons released from the captivity of armed and terrorist groups so as to enable prompt identification of victims of trafficking».

On the other hand, the international legal framework related to terrorism and counterterrorism is considerably more challenging and complex in comparison to the anti-trafficking international legal system. Indeed, despite the existence of a set of treaties, protocols, conventions, Security Council Resolutions, as well as “soft law” and non-binding mechanisms, there is no comprehensive instrument providing a universal and accepted definition of terrorism, as it is the case for human trafficking with the Palermo Protocol.

In analysing the nexus between these two phenomena, it is of utmost importance to emphasize the constituent elements of trafficking used as a tactic by terrorist groups. Pursuant art. 3 of the Palermo Protocol, «Trafficking in persons shall mean the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force […] to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation. […]». This very intense definition provided by the Protocol, shows three main constituent elements of human trafficking: action, means and purpose.

Therefore, as the OSCE outlines, in evaluating the link between trafficking in human beings and terrorism from a legal perspective, a useful approach would be one that analyses these three constituent elements when exploited by terrorist groups as a tactic to recruit individuals. In this regard, the analysis of the current legal framework on the nexus between the two crimes shows that a harmonisation in the criminalization of terrorism and human trafficking as two offences connected has not been reached yet. Indeed, despite the existence of several instruments that recognize the growing links between terrorism and transnational organized crime, the lack of a definition of terrorism still hinders the internationally community to adopt an internationally agreed-upon approach to terrorism matters, while it is not the case for human trafficking.

The legal response that has been adopted so far to address cases where the two phenomena intersects has largely focused on criminalizing all individuals related to terrorist activities and groups. The lack of a definition of terrorism has led States to adopt different measures aimed at only criminalizing terrorists and not identifying and protecting victims. Therefore, as highlighted in the research, this approach has showed to have significant consequences for victims, who have risked being held fully accountable for all the crimes they have committed, even though they are victims of human traffickers. Based on these findings, the OSCE research concludes that a human trafficking lens when dealing with terrorist criminal offences should be applied to contribute to victim identification, assistance, rehabilitation and reintegration, and prevention of re-victimization. Therefore, it would be of utmost importance to apply the principle of non-punishment - that already exists in the human trafficking framework – in the anti-terrorism existing legal and policy mechanism.

Conclusion

This critical commentary has analysed from a legal perspective the comprehensive research carried out by the OSCE organization on the nexus between human trafficking and terrorism. It has highlighted how the application of anti-trafficking mechanisms, including the principle of non-punishment, in the context of terrorism could help leading in a better way prosecution of criminal offences related to terrorism. The OSCE research might constitute the basis for an international and agreed-upon definition that considers both a security-oriented approach to prevent and prosecute terrorist offences and a human rights-based one, ensuring that victims of terrorism – and trafficked persons exploited by terrorists – are not held accountable and can access to their rights.

All in all, the OSCE research offers significant food for thought and, using concrete cases, helps filling the knowledge gap of policy makers, academics, practitioners, and legislators on the nexus between human trafficking and terrorism.

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