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November 16, 2021 — No Comments

Insights from Joanna Chiu’s book, “China Unbound, A New World Disorder”

By: Sandra Watson Parcels

Joanna Chiu’s book, China Unbound: A New World Disorder, describes China as a global bully who uses various tactics in its attempts to create a new world order. The new world disorder Chiu describes in her book exposes troubling implications for global stability and human rights.

China is the world’s second-largest economy with far reaching political and economic influence. Jan Wong, Globe and Mail Bureau Chief in Beijing from 1989 to 1994 recalls when China’s markets began to open and there was a strong desire for global friendship. However, since President Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2012, China has gone from underdog to bully.

Xi is an admirer of ancient legalist scholars and quoted Han Fei, a legalist scholar from 200-233 BCE, to justify why his citizens should submit to a strong leader; ‘When those who uphold the law are strong, the state is strong.’ In one speech to party members, he discussed the lessons to learn from the collapse of the Soviet Union and how its wavering ideology, political rot, and military disloyalty caused its downfall.

Experts search to understand why Xi and his cohorts have increased attacks on civil society to such unprecedented levels. Noble Peace Prize winner and human rights activist, Liu Xiaobo, died in 2017 in Chinese custody. This was the first Noble Peace Prize winner to die in police custody since Nazi Germany. An account of a Kazakhstan Uyghur woman imprisoned in a Chinese internment camp in Xinjiang province provides a rare glimpse into the horrid human right violations intensifying under Xi’s reign. After 15 months of arbitrary captivity, she was released. A nurse attempted to take the shackles off her ankles, but the metal had dug so deep for so long that the metal had stuck to her skin. Depriving her of sunlight for over a year, her captors fed her watery soup and steamed buns which reduced her weight to 35kg. After her release, she moved to Turkey and was interviewed there about her experience.

In 2014, the Umbrella movement was born in Hong Kong as protesters fought to retain their democratic characteristics enshrined in “two systems, one country” doctrine. But, by June 2020, China’s National Security Law came into effect and abolished the 50-year agreement with Britain in Hong Kong. The law aspires to regulate and punish actions against/by any individual of any nationality anywhere in the world. In response, many countries quickly moved to cancel extradition treaties with Hong Kong. Legal experts sounded the alarm that any individual who has said anything critical of China should avoid travelling to China.

There is an old fable in China that all Chinese descend from the yellow emperor so no matter where Chinese people reside, they are part of the motherland. Recently minority groups in China have also been added to the myth by China’s Communist Party (CCP). China has created an overseas organization, called United Front, that spies on and harasses Chinese diaspora. This exemplifies a key element of Beijing’s strategy for harassment to target common individuals and groups and is often overlooked by governments and media.

For decades, most countries in the world have followed along with aspects of China’s One China policy that declares Taiwan as Chinese territory. As a result, Taiwan has been diplomatically isolated, despite being independent since 1949 and a vibrant democracy for the past five decades. China now threatens Taiwan’s sovereignty on almost a daily basis. Beijing also claims approximately 90 percent of the South China Seas, including the territorial waters and economic zones of various other countries in the region.

Canada and Australia are middle powers that recently came face-to-face with China’s bullying and aggression. Canada has significant influence on the world stage due to its rich natural resources, membership in the G7 group of advanced economies, and membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). In December 2018, Meng Wanzhou, Chief Financial officer of Huawei, was arrested by Canadian authorities on behalf of the United States for allegations of fraud. Chinese media reported that Xi flew into a rage directed at Canada. Days later, two Canadians – Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig – were arrested in a blatant act of hostage diplomacy. Canadian Robert Schellenberg, already sentenced to 15 years in a Chinese prison, was resentenced to death in an act of death-threat diplomacy. Even though the tone in Ottawa has recently changed and there are calls for a tougher stance on China, there is still no real effort to reduce Canada’s vulnerability to Beijing and shift trade to other markets. Australia, as another middle power, caught the world’s attention when it passed the Foreign Interference law that stood up to Beijing’s aggression, showing that even though they are economically reliant on China, it would not be used for political manipulation.

Italy and Greece look at China as more of a solution to their economic woes. Italy joined China’s New Silk Road project in 2019. The European Commission scolded Italy and created a strategy paper on ways to deal with Beijing. The European Union (EU) also moved to restrict Beijing’s investment in European infrastructure. Greece joined China’s New Silk Road in 2018. The Port of Piraeus is now controlled by China and is hailed as an economic success as it becomes the main Mediterranean gateway for the New Silk Road between Asia and Europe. Chinese officials made many visits to Greece during its economic crisis. It was a smart strategy by Beijing to pander to the black sheep of Europe. In 2017, Greece vetoed an EU statement of human rights abuses in China, and it has become clear that China is using chequebook-diplomacy for political leverage in Greece.

There are fears that China’s aggressive behavior and the world’s subsequent reaction is leading to a new Cold War. Russia has often been brazenly anti-American. Russia’s economic reliance on China continues to grow, while Russian goods only makeup one percent of China’s world trade. There is increased concern in Russia that the Chinese may encroach on their influence in Central Asia. However, external pressures by the West for a united front against China and Russia is pushing them closer. The United States, under the Biden administration has moved closer to its allies then the previous administration, such as the joint action by the US, Canada, the UK, and the EU to impose parallel sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the mass interment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. President Biden has also brought back the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (The QUAD) which includes the US, India, Japan, and Australia. The United States must be a global defender but can only do that successfully by also addressing its own actions. Its recent domestic trends of fake news and oversimplified soundbites has created anger and confusion that often discredits fact-based criticisms of China. As tensions increase on legitimate concerns, disinformation could push the world to outright conflict.

For years, the world has ignored, overlooked, and mishandled China’s actions out of economic self-interest.

As China’s toxic aggression grows into oppression, expansion and human rights violations, the world can no longer be complicit in its behaviour. If China is not stopped, its aggressive actions against both states and individuals will change the international world order into a new world disorder.

November 12, 2021 — No Comments

Taiwan, the relations of the Strait and the Indo-Pacific

By: Francesco Cirillo

*Image Source*: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/taiwan-flag-roc-republic-of-china-1184108/

In US strategic assessments Taiwan represents the first anti-Chinese containment line in the Indo-Pacific area, which is why it is essential for Washington to guarantee Taipei logistical support to keep its military and deterrence capabilities efficient.

In recent months, Taipei has seen pressure from Beijing increase, both through propaganda and through continuous violations of the Taiwanese air defense zone. In the previous months, the Wall Street Journal had written that US special forces units were present on the Island of Formosa to support and advise the Taiwanese forces, with the aim of preparing the Taipei forces for a possible attack by the PLA forces in Beijing. Over the years, Taiwan has strengthened and modernized its warfare system, with the aim of guaranteeing itself a conventional deterrence to dissuade Beijing from starting a heavy amphibious invasion operation. Called the Doctrine of the Porcupine, it aims to discourage a possible Chinese attack due to the high human and economic costs. For Washington, Taiwan is indirectly part of the strategy of containing Chinese expansionism in the Pacific. It represents a natural barrier to the air and naval forces of the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic, which aims to expand its zone of influence in the Pacific.

The Taiwan issue is heavily involved in Sino-US relations, especially with the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and the three joint communiques. The TRA obliges Washington to guarantee Taipei a continuous flow of armaments for defensive purposes, with the aim of guaranteeing the Taipei government military capabilities for its own defense. But Taiwan I'm coming! also that Washington, to respect the One China Policy, would not accept any declaration of Independence by Taipei, preferring to maintain the Status Quo.

Even the Taiwanese defense minister himself has declared that Taipei is equipped for a possible attack by the EPL, which according to Beijing itself could have the logistical and military capabilities to invade Taiwan by 2025.

In recent days, US President Joe Biden himself stated that Washington will intervene militarily in support of Taiwan in the event of an attack by the armed forces in Beijing; later, during an interview on CNN, Taiwan's President Tsa-Ing Wen confirmed the Wall Street Journal's early October rumors about the presence of US military units on the island, with advisory and training duties.

In the months preceding the Think Tank of the Center for the New American Security (CNAS) and the Chinese state TV itself have published simulations of invasion of the island of Taiwan, demonstrating that the issue concerning the Taiwanese issue of the strait is a widely discussed debate. and at the heart of US concerns.

For Washington, the concern will also be linked to the nuclear deterrence capabilities that Beijing could acquire by 2030. According to the Pentagon Report Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, the People's Republic of China could increase the Chinese’s nuclear arsenal, up to the one thousand nuclear ballistic carriers ceiling for 2030.

For the American political-military leadership, this scenario could compromise US deterrence in the Indo-Pacific area in the coming years.

November 9, 2021 — No Comments

A reflection on climate change and security with Dr. Duraid Jalili. (Part 2)

In the second part of the two-part series interview with Dr. Duraid Jalili, Lecturer in Defence Studies at King's College London, Dr. Duraid reflect on climate change and security.

Interviewers: Esther Ruiz and Arsalan Sheikh

November 9, 2021 — No Comments

Interview with H.E. Amb. Khaled Zekriya, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in Italy

An interview with H.E. Ambassador Khaled Ahmad Zekriya, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in Rome, Italy; regarding the recent events in Afghanistan and the importance of the international community's cooperation to avoid Taliban's violence and terrorism.

Interviewer: Shahin Modarres.

November 5, 2021 — No Comments

The Right to a Healthy Environment: A Change of Logic?

By: Luca Mattei

*Image Source*: https://unsplash.com/photos/KVWBuZ8DyC0

In recent decades scientists have proved that humankind is entering the Anthropocene: a new geological era where the effects of human activities and pollution will push the environment towards a collapse of its ecological equilibrium. The growing concerns about this shift, have been recently reflected in the Resolution 48/13 of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC), which acknowledges a close link between ‘environmental degradation and climate change’ to human subsistence.

To sum up, this UN HRC Resolution recognizes ‘the right to a healthy environment’ as a full-fledged human right. This development has been welcomed by human rights experts. Notably, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet expressed satisfaction, mentioning that:

‘Bold action is now required to ensure this resolution on the right to a healthy environment serves as a springboard to push for transformative economic, social and environmental policies that will protect people and nature’.

Indeed, this is a historical development, but also a topic for scholarly debates. In fact, the catastrophic consequences of the deterioration of the global ecosystem are leading experts to question the ‘state of the art’ of the international legal structure. More precisely, does international law play a role on the ongoing environmental crisis? In this paper, I will argue that the ‘right to a healthy environment’ does not break with the traditional thought and structure of international law; rather it provides an additional perspective to it.

The birth of the ‘homo economicus’

International law does not engage thoroughly on the protection of the environment. It is significant how even in landmarking environmental treaties – such as the Rio Declaration and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples – the main focus is on economic expansion and land exploitation rather than protection of nature. For scholar Anne Grear, this approach is coherent with the Western cultural myth of ‘rational human subject’ and the construct deriving from such ideology.

According to this reconstruction, since the famous pronouncement of René Descartes, cogito ergo sum, the idea that above all there is human rationality has been thriving throughout Europe. However, Grear claims that this narrative is exclusionary at its roots, as only a precise kind of rationality is endorsed: behind the illusion of objective rationality lies a design that promotes certain hierarchies. This includes a specific kind of relationship between humankind and nature.

Indeed, analysing national contexts, most countries in the world address the conservation of the environment in their legal systems; however, the same becomes more uncertain in the international setting. For instance, this is visible within the 8 Millennium Sustainable Goals (MDGs): out of the eight points enshrined in this agenda, only the seventh is about ‘environmental sustainability’ and among the four targets within the latter ‘only two were genuinely about environmental conditions’.

The idea that humankind can bend ‘nature’ as it pleases has been further promoted through the rise of international corporations, which can escape both territorial and legal boundaries. In the past, these associations of interest were subservient to the goals of the Western elite, aiming to exploit developing countries, their ‘nature’ and resources. However, as suggested by Grear, corporations have now become so prominent that they have managed to emancipate themselves and become a sort of ‘homo economicus’ based on legal fiction. This is the pinnacle of what is meant to be 'rational' according to the Western legacy, but, paradoxically, this is detrimental even to their former creators. Like a golem without its master: international corporations can now continue their mission of exploiting the Earth and its resources with hardly any restraints.

The environment as a ‘grundnorm’

Today, this tradition in international law is being challenged. New international treaties and standards are leading countries in adopting sustainable approaches in their development policies. for a contribution to this shift comes from human rights law: in the landmarking Urgenda Case, the Dutch Supreme Court stated that ‘the government had to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% by the end of 2020, respectful of commitments made in the Paris Agreements’.

Interestingly, the court stated that this decision was made in compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Similarly, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights has recognized the importance of environmental protection, as nature is inevitably intertwined with relevant ‘human rights’, such as the ‘right to food’.

This seems consistent with scholars Kim and Bosselman’s position, which suggests that ecological integrity should be understood as a conditio sine qua non – or grundnorm – of international law, as the equilibrium of the ecosystem is necessary for the subsistence of humankind. Hence, the call for a sort of ‘international constitutionalism’ which should be capable to work within the decentralized system of the international community:

‘Where there is a regulatory gap, this grundnorm fills the void. Where there is already a treaty obligation, it reinforces and clarifies treaty obligations in light of the planetary boundaries framework.’

Whereas the proposal of Kim and Bosselman is undoubtedly bold, it is undeniable that big progress has been made in this sense. The Urgenda Case itself is proof that, perhaps, a decentralized environment protection system is not impossible. Nonetheless, ‘the right to a healthy environment’ is not such a radical innovation.

Concluding remark

The challenge of ‘climate change’ is arguably one of the main reasons why ‘green movements’ have gained momentum in the last decades. Because of this threat, the wild exploitation of the Earth – based on traditional ‘human subject rationality’ – is starting to increasingly sound irrational. Still, the response of the international community continues to be mainly human-centric and tied to human rights law.

Therefore, what we are witnessing with the UN Resolution 48/13 is a ‘greening’ of pre-existing human rights. The traditional foundation of international law is unchallenged. However, while humanity remains the main yardstick to assess the protection of nature, this new approach, could represent a gradual path towards a more comprehensive protection of the environment and human survival in the context of ‘climate change’.

November 5, 2021 — No Comments

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN AFRICA: CAN THE FUTURE BE “GREEN”?

By: Michele Tallarini

*Image Source*: https://africabusinesscommunities.com/news/african-development-bank-offers-technical-assistance-for-development-of-mini-green-energy-grids-in-guinea/

Development and energy sources in Africa

Africa is one of the fastest-growing continents in the world: according to some of the latest reports its population will double by 2050, and it will represent over 50% of the global demographic growth. According to these predictions, 2,5 billion people are expected to live on the continent, and by mid-century 25% of people will be African. Moreover, the continent, whose average age is 19, is extremely young and dynamic. This data is estimated to grow to 26 within thirty years, making African youth ten times larger than that of Europe by 2050.

It is not hard to understand how such dynamism will make Africa a prominent player in global development, and one of the most active markets worldwide. In a context which is already an area of interest to international powers, the continent will increasingly become an equal partner to Western countries.

Given the difference in wealth and development between different African countries and regions, the actual growth rates are generally not accompanied by the reinforcement of services and infrastructure. About 600 million African people do not have access to electricity while around 900 million people lack access to clean cooking (IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2019). The near-future increase of the African population will exacerbate the situation, pushing millions of people to demand access to energy and facilities. How African governments will respond to these requests will be a crucial issue.

In particular, the energy supply is, and will be, a key point of African development. Governments will have to be able to provide access to electricity to their whole population, supporting local, national, and continental development. In this framework, renewable energy sources could play a pivotal role in African energy self-sufficiency and sustainable development. But how can green energy be implemented in African production chains? And what is the current situation in this field?

The role of green energy in Africa

Energy consumption in Africa is characterized by a high level of disparity: South Africa, together with North African countries, cover more than 70% of the entire energy consumption of the continent, while a Sub-Saharan urban citizen uses only 200 kWh per year on average (North Africa 1442 kWh/year, South Africa 4148 kWh/year). This fragmentation gives a snapshot of the unequal development of the continent, particularly in a strategic sector such as the energy industry. It also represents a significant issue for an equal development of the continent and for “the pan-African drive for unity, self-determination, freedom, progress and collective prosperity pursued under Pan-Africanism and African Renaissance” (African Union, Agenda 2063).

At present, renewable energy only accounts for 2% of the total production, confirming the backwardness in this field (45% of the total energy is sourced from biomass burning, typically used by people who lack access to clean cooking systems). Of these renewable energies, hydroelectric power is the most used (74% of the total), as large dams represent strategic infrastructures in several regions, and their construction is heavily promoted at an international level. Unfortunately, regardless of this, fossil fuels still make up the majority of the share, prompting several African countries to even import it from abroad.

As stated earlier this situation contributes to Africa’s slow and unequal development, notwithstanding its potential in the fields of solar and aeolian energy. Currently, South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt are the major solar energy producers whereas Kenya, and Senegal dominate in the production of wind energy. Still, green energy is under-exploited despite the continent’s possibilities. For instance, solar radiation in North Africa is 3 times higher than the European average, and the Saharan Desert alone could accommodate a great number of solar power plants. Wind energy could also be effectively produced and harnessed in many African areas.

There are many economic, logistical, and political reasons for this underdevelopment. The construction of any kind of renewable energy plant requires large investments, and a network of efficient infrastructure to guarantee widespread distribution. Green energy production also requires high knowledge and trained personnel at all levels, such as design, construction, maintenance and so on. In most cases, African countries do not have the economic resources and the know-how to pursue it alone, thus relying on foreign investments in the sector which finance and oversee construction of new energy plants.

In addition, the lack of infrastructures in large parts of the continent, especially in rural areas, represents a serious obstacle to the development of a high efficiency energy grid capable of distributing electrical power and to allow countries to reach a homogeneous and effective progress. Moreover, the lack of facilities which lead to, for instance, limited mobility in certain areas, would make the maintenance of the energy grids extremely difficult. Therefore, green energy expansion in Africa is realized mainly through small-scale implants that can ensure electricity supply to small villages or limited areas, which are low-cost and easily maintainable. Although this configuration can actually support the development of poor rural areas that have no access to electricity, it no longer appears to be a sustainable way to strengthen African growth and to reinforce its international role.

Lastly, the political instability of many African countries is a severe threat to the establishment of a modern energy network in the continent. Conflicts drain state funds, making the construction and management of energy infrastructures very difficult. Moreover, political agendas of unstable governments do not focus on the strengthening of energy independence of their countries.

Green energy in Africa: a geo-political issue

Despite all these obstacles, the International Energy Agency (IEA) claims that green energies will represent one of the main development factors for African countries. In its 2019 Africa Energy Outlook it foresees that by 2040 more than 60% of the total electricity production will come from renewable sources. Although the speed of that growth is uncertain, scenarios agree that technologies related to wind and solar energy will be those that will be developed more, pushing green energy production up to 40% of the total. This expansion has both economic and political consequences; electricity cuts, and inefficiency in distribution in general, represent a big issue especially in African cities. Indeed, many of the latest clashes in North Africa cities were generated by protests on the lack of energy. For instance, last year clashes in Libya were triggered by electricity outages. Similarly, power absence in Sinai generated discontent, subsequently providing opportunity to terrorist groups to increase their influence in the region.

There is no doubt that a higher production at national level could allow Africa to achieve a more equal development. To this end, renewable energies could give the continent a new international role as energy provider, by also supporting the increase of its population, and the resulting rise of new consumers, markets and needs. Moreover, considering African population rates, a green change could have beneficial effects on global warming too, which represents one of the main challenges of the next few years. That is why Western countries, whose role is crucial for an African Green Deal, should promote international investments, training, transfer of knowledge and, more in general, development aid and support to local Governments.

November 2, 2021 — No Comments

The United States’ Race for Supremacy in Artificial Intelligence

By: Zrinka Boric

“Where we choose to invest speaks to what we value as a Nation. This year’s Budget, the first of my Presidency, is a statement of values that define our Nation at its best.” - Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (The Budget Message of the President)

This article navigates the landscape of AI policymaking and tracks efforts of the United States to promote and govern AI technologies.

Technological advancement has become a new approach to increase a state’s political, military, and economic strength. The Cold War and the arms race between the two then strongest nations in the world, the United States of America (USA) and the Soviet Union (USSR), revealed the potential that lay in the development of technology. Today, the United States is again at the forefront in the race for supremacy in the potentially world-changing technology: artificial intelligence (AI).

Artificial intelligence has the potential to fundamentally change strategy, organization, priorities, and resources of any national community that manages to develop AI technology, lead to further innovation, and eventually apply it. Artificial intelligence is going through major evolution and development, and its potential is increasing at a speed rate. Progress is visibly accelerating, and our social, political, and economic systems will be affected greatly. One of the important questions is how to define and approach all the opportunities AI technology can offer while avoiding or managing risks.

The American AI Initiative

The United States is characterized by a skilled workforce, innovative private sector, good data availability, and effective governance which are all key factors for the government’s ability to enable effective development and adoption of AI.

The United States published its national AI strategy, the American AI Initiative, in 2019.The responsible organization is the White House, and its priority is to increase the federal government investment in AI’s Research and Development (R&D), and to ensure technical standards for safe AI technology development and deployment. American AI Initiative expresses a commitment to collaborate with foreign partners while promoting U.S leadership in AI. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the American AI Initiative is not particularly comprehensive, especially when compared to other leading nations, and is characterized by the lack of both funding and palpable policy objectives.

In 2019, the U.S. policymakers were advised to advance the American AI Initiative with concrete goals and clear policies aimed at advancing AI – such as spurring public sector AI adoption and allocating new funding for AI R&D, rather than simply repurposing existing funds.

AI in the USA Budget for FY2022

President Biden's budget for FY2022 includes approximately $171.3 billion for research and development (R&D), which is an 8.5% ($13.5 billion) increase compared to the FY2021 estimated level of $157.8 billion.

According to the 2021 AI Index Report, in FY 2020 the USA federal departments and agencies spent a combined $1.8 billion on unclassified AI-related contracts. This represents an increase of more than 25% from the amount spent in FY 2019.

One of the agencies with the major R&D program is the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). President Biden is requesting $1,497.2 million for NIST in FY2022, an increase of $462.7 million (44.7%) from the FY2021 $1,034.5 million. The second-highest program budget increase in NIST is for Partnerships, Research, and Standards to Advance Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence, $45.4 million (an increase of $15 million compared to FY2021).

Some departments are expecting large percentage increases in R&D funding, among which the Department of Commerce, with an increase of up to 29.3%. At the same time, it is interesting to note that one of DOC’s latest projects is the creation of the National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Advisory Committee (NAIAC), which will be discussed below.

Numerous policymakers in Congress are particularly interested in the Department of Defense Science and Technology (DOD S&T) program funding. The increasingly popular belief in the defense community finds ensuring support for S&T activities as necessary to maintain USA’s military superiority in the world.

The budget request represents President Biden’s R&D priorities, and the Congress may agree with it partially, completely, or not agree at all. It is safe to say that AI has gained the attention of the Congress, considering the 116^th Congress (January 3, 2019 - January 3, 2021) is the most AI-focused congressional session in history with the number of times AI was mentioned being more than three times higher compared to 115^th Congress (115th - 149, 116th - 486).

National and International Efforts

As indicated in its national AI strategy, the United States takes part in various intergovernmental AI initiatives, such asGlobal Partnership on AI (GPAI), OECD Network of Experts on AI (ONE AI), Ad Hoc Expert Group (AHED) for the Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, and has participated in global summits and meetings, such as AI Partnership for Defense, and AI for Good Global Summit. In addition, the United States announced a declaration of the bilateral agreement on AI with the United Kingdom in December 2020.

On September 8, 2021, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced the establishment of the National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Advisory Committee (NAIAC). The main purpose of the NAIAC will be to advise the President and the National AI Initiative Office (NAIIO) on issues related to AI. “AI presents an enormous opportunity to tackle the biggest issues of our time, strengthen our technological competitiveness, and be an engine for growth in nearly every sector of the economy. But we must be thoughtful, creative, and wise in how we address the challenges that accompany these new technologies,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said.

The United States or China?

The United States is showing an increasing interest in developing and implementing artificial intelligence through the increase in federal AI-related budget, establishment of new committees, intergovernmental AI initiatives, bilateral agreements, and participating in global summits but the constant comparison is being made between USA and China. Should the future battle over artificial intelligence be between USA and China, the question arises: Who will win this battle for AI supremacy?

Recently, a former Pentagon expert said that the race is already over, and China has won. The Pentagon’s first chief software officer resigned over the slow pace of technological advances in the U.S. military. He claims the USA has no competing fighting chance against China in the upcoming years and that it's already a done deal.

At the same time, an expert in artificial intelligence Kai-Fu Lee, former President of Google China, disagrees with this claim. He notes that the US has a clear academic lead in artificial intelligence, supports his claim by noting that all 16 Turing award recipients in AI are American or Canadian, and the top 1% of papers published are still predominantly American. China is simply faster in commercializing technologies and has more data.

Artificial intelligence already has numerous uses (academic, military, medical, etc.) and when assessing countries' AI technology reach it is important to separate different uses of technology.

To answer the question on whether the United States or China will win AI 'race' or whether a new force will emerge, it is necessary to closely monitor artificial intelligence technology development and compare different countries using a uniform set of criteria before reaching a conclusion. Another potential scenario, as highlighted by Kai-Fu Lee in his book AI 2014: Ten Visions of Our Future, states the possibility of United States and China co-leading the world in technology.

Image Source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/blue-bright-lights-373543/

October 29, 2021 — No Comments

Water Crisis in the Middle East: A case study of Urmia, Tigris and Euphrates

By: Angelo Calianno and John Devine

Image Source: *World Resource Institute, https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/water_stress_world_map_large.jpg*

Water is a vital component of all life on the planet. Its importance is rarely overstressed. This is no truer than in the Middle East. The region, characterised by a hot and arid climate, has several major lakes and river systems supporting local agriculture. Unfortunately access to the water supply has often been a point of contention.

It has been reported that the Middle East is warming at twice the global average. Coupled with the World Resources Institute (WRI) listing 12 out of 17 of the world's most water-stressed countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, water access will only become more critical in the coming years and decades. This article will look at two different case studies—first, the actions of Iran in reversing the environmental degradation of Lake Urmia. Second, how a combination of infrastructure projects by neighboring countries and environmental changes have altered the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates River system in Iraq.

Lake Urmia:

Once the largest lake in the Middle East and the 6th largest saltwater lake on the planet Lake Urmia was both an ecological sight of interest that supported several different species and a popular tourist destination with a local economy tailored to it. Lake Urmia covered an area of over 5,200 square kilometres. But, a combination of policy decisions and poor weather saw the lake diminish in size to a mere 10% of its maximum capacity in 2014.

The desire to utilise natural resources led to the construction of several dams, for irrigation and hydropower, on the three rivers, which were the source of 90% of the water to the lake. There were also an estimated 40,000 illegal water wells were also in the surrounding area.

The effect of the shrinking lake affected the local wildlife and tourist industry and the local agriculture. In addition, the receding water exposed massive amounts of salt, which produced dust that affected the agriculture of the surrounding areas. The effects of the reducing lake were severe enough to cause several protests.

Efforts to reverse this trend have seen the creation of the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (URLP). Local press have reports $1 billion dollars have been spent to restore the size of the lake and wildlife habitats. In addition, the URLP has tried to wean farmers off thirstier crops and fill in the lake's illegal water wells. Also, higher than expected rainfall has contributed to the increase of the lake to 2,700 square kilometres in 2021.

Tigris and Euphrates:

As the water source for one of the three major ancient river civilisations, the Tigris and Euphrates have always held a special place in the collective consciousness of historians. A bountiful river system that for generations provided fertile land for in the surrounding area. However, this is no longer the case in Iraq. Reports state over 7 million people in Iraq are directly affected by low water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates . In addition, UNICEF has reported that 3 out of 5 children have no access to safely managed water services.

Both the Tigris and the Euphrates originate in Turkey before descending into Syria and Northern Iraq. The Tigris also has supporting tributaries originating from Iran. The rivers provide 98% of Iraq's water. Therefore, the policies enacted by Turkey, Syria, or Iran directly affect the flow of water into Iraq downstream.

The construction of major infrastructure projects, including over 20 major dams and numerous hydraulic power plants, in Turkey since the 1970's have significantly reduced the flow of water to Iraq. In the 1990s saw Turkey intentionally filled up its reservoirs that proved significantly detrimental to Iraq and Syria's water supply. Iraq's water supply issues were further exacerbated due to the infrastructure projects of Iran and Syria. This in turn, affected the agriculture of Iraq and the health of its growing population.

The three major conflicts in the past three decades in Iraq have also seen the destruction of much of Iraqi water infrastructure, including many water treatment centers. This has proven consequential. Due to the infrastructure of other countries further upstream, the reduced flow of water reaching Iraq affects the cleanliness of the water systems - as the water is unable to dilute much of the sewage and dirt that gets into the Tigris and Euphrates. Without the ability to treat the water in the country, it creates sanitary problems. As a result, whatever water can now reach Iraq is not a clean as it had been previously

The domestic political factors have contributed to the worsening water crisis. Successive divided national governments focused on insurgency of militia groups in the country have been unable to formulate an effective strategy to counter the effects of the looming humanitarian crisis.

The October 2021 elections, the sixth since Saddam Hussein's regime's fall, have seemed to produce little evidence that an effective coalition will be able to address the water crisis. If there is any hope to address the problem directly, the next Iraqi government will need to have a tangible power-sharing coalition and agree with their regional neighbours on managing the Tigris and Euphrates.

Conclusion:

There is an imperative need for precise and effective action to counter the changing climate in the Middle East. To this end, collaboration and consultation over infrastructure projects between the neighboring countries is required to prevent sever disruption to the shared water resources, particularly as severe droughts are expected to exacerbate humanitarian conditions in the region. It will require not only the consensus within individual states to implement constructive change but also wider regional cooperation.

October 26, 2021 — No Comments

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and the Threat it Poses to and from the New Afghanistan

Image Source: https://unsplash.com/photos/72ccNLMJ-sU

By Adelaide Martelli, Francesco Bruno, and Zachariah Parcels

Proceeding the culmination of the Taliban’s 20-year insurgency, complete withdrawal of NATO forces, and reinstatement of the Taliban’s repressive policies reminiscent of their harsh rule in the late 1990s, domestic actors have emerged to question the Taliban’s renewed governance. Amidst the frantic evacuations of foreigners and vulnerable Afghans, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP; aka ISIS-K) or Wilayat Khorasan emerged in our public consciousness with their horrific attack on 26 August at Kabul’s International Airport. This attack seemingly inaugurated ISKP’s ongoing suicide bombing campaign currently inflicting Afghanistan. ISKP appears to represent the most significant threat to the Taliban’s already teetering “domestic sovereignty” and internal integrity. Thus, to understand the potential security threats emanating to and from the new Afghanistan, it is essential to understand ISKP’s history, operational capabilities, and radical ideology.

The Beginning of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)

ISKP was formed in 2014 by defecting Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP; Pakistani Taliban), Afghan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Islam, and disenfranchised al Qaeda fighters active in Pakistan and Afghanistan. These defections were welcomed later by representatives from Iraq and Syria of the Islamic State (IS), corresponding with IS 2015 announcement of a “Khorasan” province. Among the TTP defectors were high ranked commanders previously active in Pakistan and its Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), including ISKP’s first wali (governor), Hafez Sayed Khan.

Under Sayed Khan, ISKP successfully infiltrated Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar Province in 2015, conquering eight Taliban districts and displacing thousands who did not conform to the group’s apocalyptic ideology. According to Lushenko et al. (2019), contradicting the Taliban’s aspirations to “Talibanize” Afghanistan and effectively counteracting the latter’s opposition to government and coalition forces, acute disagreements between the two groups has resulted in increasing violence plaguing Afghanistan and bogging of Taliban forces. The looming expansionist threat of IS, at that time, caused coalition forces and Kabul to redirect resources to eradicate ISKP from Afghanistan. This campaignseemingly alleviated and unintentionally strengthened Afghan Taliban forces.

Under Khan, ISKP rapidly consolidated territory – predominantly from the Taliban. Albeit thousands of ground and air operations against ISKP by coalition and Afghan forces – including the deployment of the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) munition – fighting with the Taliban, and the death of Khan in 2016, ISKP continued to make gains. This includes ISKP nearly capturing the infamous Tora Bora cave complex from the Taliban in June 2017.

However, by 2017, Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) had suffered heavy casualties, including the loss of three walis, half its fighters, and two-thirds of its territory. Notwithstanding, ISKP still maintained the capability to launch consecutive terrorist attacks in Kabul in 2017, predominantly against Shi’a mosques and cultural sites to spark sectarian divisions. Nevertheless, after a sustained campaign, ISKP surrendered to the Taliban in the summer of 2018. Though, Taliban-IS relations reportedly have not been fully hostile, as parts of the Haqqani Network have coordinated with ISKP. ISKP faced further setbacks in 2019 when more than 600 fighters surrendered to Afghan forces.

These setbacks drove the Islamic State (IS) Core to make internal transformations. IS founded new provinces in India and Pakistan in May 2019, territory formerly under ISKP’s purview; and, in June 2020, appointed the zealous Shahab al-Muhajir – who was previously associated with the Haqqani Network and planned urban attacks in Kabul for ISKP – as ISKP’s new wali, as the incumbent Aslam Farooqi was captured.

ISKP’s Contemporary Operational Capabilities

Contemporarily, the organisation can count on a number of foreign fighters who have been smuggled into the country. The organisation has a strength of between 2000 and 4000 fighters spread across the provinces of Kabul, Nangahar, Kunar, Jowzjan, Paktia, Kunduz, and Herat, areas in which the organisation has claimed attacks.

Though when analysing ISKP’s current capabilities and operational organisation, it is possible to argue that ISKP is going towards a period development and readjustment due to Afghanistan’s changing landscape amidst the withdrawal of the US-led coalition. These changes can be both an opportunity and a risk for the organisation. Until 2020 (and illustrated above), ISKP was threatened by the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda based in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, the US-led coalition, and the now-defunct Afghan government. By a tacit consensus, the three were able to repress the group and dislodge it from their main areas of influence which worked as a catalytic for fundraising.

Since the US withdrawal and the Taliban takeover, the landscape has profoundly changed. There are two key elements to consider. First, Afghanistan remains one of the most prominent theatres of jihad, disproportionately increasing the number of foreign fighters moving to the country. For instance, al-Qaeda has encouraged its members to relocate to Afghanistan from Syria and Iraq, while IS has smuggled key leaders into the country. Secondly, the power and security vacuum left will consequently cause instability that ISKP aims to capitalise on. This has resulted in an increased number of attacks since the beginning of 2021. ISKP conducted 77 attacks only in the first 4 months of the year, with the most known being the attack at the airport in Kabul, which killed 170 civilians and 13 US Marines. Similarly, it is unclear if the Taliban will be able to stabilise the country and provide basic necessities to the population. This instability provides ISKP with an opportunity to gain more traction among the population, gain more recruits in their fight against the Taliban, and plan new international attacks from Afghanistan – as they have done until recently.

ISKP’s Ideological Threat

Islamic State Khorasan Province’s (ISKP’s) security threat – both to the Taliban’s governance and internal integrity and to the international community – is not only manifested in their capabilities but also their ideology. ISKP is a Salafi-jihadistmovement whose goal is to establish a global Caliphate through armed struggle. With this purpose, ISKP follows the teaching of two Salafi scholars, Ibn Taymiyyah and Muhammad Ibn Abdul Wahab, who supported purist visions of Islam and the necessity of Sharia law. Takfiri strategy is their modus operandi that, similarly to other jihadist groups, allows them to kill all those Muslims declared as kafir, meaning “apostate”. Not accepting their same extremist ideology is enough to be labelled as such. Considering this, ISKP rejects the Taliban government and its rules.

ISKP has a transnational and all-encompassing goal, unlike the Taliban which they consider as a “nationalist movement” with an “impure” ideology. The latter is a pivotal factor when considering its success over the larger audience. This group does not only focus on the region – the “Near Enemy” – but adopts a global jihad mentality in which the West is seen as an urgent target to destroy. Another difference with the Taliban, which is consequential to the first, relies on its relationship with the United States (US). ISKP has always condemned the presence of this foreign power on Afghan territory while the 2020 US-Taliban peace deal represented a huge occasion for this faction to delegitimise its counterpart.

ISKP is a threat not only to the Taliban’s renewed governance in Afghanistan but its internal integrity. ISKP is very effective in winning the “hearts and minds” of its followers because of a variety factors. Furthermore, it takes advantage of the fractures inside other jihadist groups, awards compensations to its followers, and employs several platforms to spread its propaganda, such as through Facebook, Twitter, Telegram, and its radio channel, “The Voice of the Khilafat”. These virtual channels are fundamental when waging global jihad, they are the main, and sometimes also the only means to incite and attract recruiters abroad.

October 22, 2021 — No Comments

Loitering Munitions, the new frontier of XXI° Century warfare

By: Marco Verrocchio, Danilo delle Fave

*Source Image:* https://www.pexels.com/photo/silhouette-of-camera-drone-flew-in-mid-air-442587/

Introduction

In recent years, the development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has increased rapidly, thanks to the successful use in unconventional warfare theatres, as well as for civil purposes, such as environmental disasters. Ranging from Aerial Reconnaissance to package delivery, their use is now consolidated all over the world in everyday life. Due to the large use of them in different fields, there is a significant interest in developing drones conceived to accomplish specific military purposes. Among them, today a new kind of drones is proving very popular among armed forces: The loitering munitions swarm. This weapon system combines the advantages of a UAV with the specifics of a swarm SAM rocket system with anti-armor, anti-personnel and anti-material targets. Called also “suicide drone” or “kamikaze drone”, a loitering munition differs from a conventional UAV because it is only equipped with an explosive warhead in order to crash towards the target.

Although the interest in this kind of weapon rose recently, the development of an unmanned flying bomb can be tracked back to Nazi’s Germany. The German V-1 (Vergeltungswaffen 1 - retaliation weapon 1) can be considered as an ancestor of the loitering munitions weapon. It was an unmanned jet propelled flying bomb used to terrorize the civilians of Allied cities, especially London and Antwerp. In addition to be unmanned and one-target, the V-1 shared different features with the current loitering system, including low-cost production and easy assembly. Nowadays the modern loitering munition has been developed on a large scale by the Israeli Harop loitering munition system: presented in February 2009 at the Aero-India show, he represents the main model of modern loitering munitions for airforces around the world.

The modern use of loitering munitions

At the beginning, the initial model of loitering munition was designed to autonomously attack one kind of defensive installation, with the development of the communication system, technology, processing and miniaturized sensors, today the loitering munitions can serve a range of functions in war once reserved for crewed aircraft or artillery.

An example of their use during a conflict, and how they can influence the strategy of the warfare system, was during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where both Azerbaijan and Armenia used the loitering munitions in order to destroy the anti-air defences of the opponent. In addition to that, the loitering munitions can be exploited to turn into a missile and crash into a target without needing direct human supervision.

This action was seen last year in march, when a drone was used in this way against a human target. The episode happened in Libya, and there was a convoy of the Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar, which was attacked by drones, that may have included a Kargu-2 autonomous quadcopter and loitering munitions.

Through the use of the loitering munitions during conflict or not, it is clear the fundamental importance of the airspace in the battlefield and moreover the necessity to establish a regulation of their use, because at the moment this technology, which enables this weapon system to be used without human control and to target people, is being used without regulation.

The future of unmanned warfare

Loitering munitions and its systematic use has highlighted the new frontiers of warfare. As proven by recent experiments and projects, militaries around the world are developing programs in order to introduce the use of massive swarm attacks by drones, and countermeasures to drone warfare. Loitering munitions represents a peculiar use of drone warfare, which could be exploited primarily in the context of hybrid warfare. The most advanced militaries have the technology to implement countermeasures, from electromagnetic interference to anti-drone drones, while middle and small armies are the most affected by these cheap and effective weapons.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has shown how efficient are the loitering munitions against old SAM systems, which were the main target of the drone strikes by Azeri army: after annihilating air defences, the aviation had proceed to operate without the risks of anti-aircraft fire, and with the help of the loitering munitions, it destroyed the Armenian fortification, allowing a swift victory. Without loitering munitions, the war would have been dragged into a stalemate, as the Armenians would have entrenched themselves with the help of the mountains. Therefore, these new weapons would probably see implementation by military forces, like Iran and Turkey, who would provide their proxies with them. For instance, the Houtis or Hamas have the interest to economically logorate their adversaries, Saudi Arabia and Israel: the high cost of air defence systems as the THAAD, could be exploited to increase the “war fatigue” of their enemies, with the use of cheap loitering munitions.

Unmanned warfare is going to revolutionize the way in which war is fought: low tech will present the main challenge to the advanced militaries around the world, since the massive use of loitering munitions can saturate defence systems, no matter how advanced they are. The mix between high tech and low tech could drop to its knee even the mightiest army: loitering munitions represents pre-eminently the spearhead of low tech warfare in modern wars.

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