by Alice Elizabeth Strophair - Middle East Team 

Introduction 

Space exploration has historically been dominated by the USA and the USSR. It was one of the many arenas in which they competed to demonstrate their superiority. Today, although the USA and Russia are still major players in space exploration, they have been joined by a host of other countries. China and India immediately come to mind with their recent space initiatives. However, the Gulf states have also started to demonstrate their ambitions. At first, the Gulf states investment in the space sector was limited and inconsistent, but recently their space programmes and policy have been included in broader initiatives such as national plans - Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan, the UAE 2031; Qatar National Vision 2030; and Oman’s Vision 2040. For the UAE this has included, in 2023, sending their first astronaut, Sultan Al Neyadi, into space, completing “the longest ever Arab space mission”. The Gulf states' significant investments in the commercial space sector has been part of a broader strategy to diversify their economies, build national cohesion, and develop their national branding. In addition, in the 21st century, the notion of military power has also been redefined by new technologies, including space-based assets. Gulf states are aware of their geostrategic position and consequently are competing among themselves to become regional leaders in space programmes and advanced technologies. 

The Need for Economic Diversification

Over the past century, the Gulf states have built their economy through the exploitation of their natural resources, mainly oil and gas. As a result, their GDP per capita has been second-to-none: Qatar $119K, the UAE $82K, Bahrain $67K, and Saudi Arabia $66K. However, in the future, their economies could be jeopardised by factors such as the reduction of crude oil prices (due to the development of fracking and shale gas), the global shift toward renewable energy (as concerns over climate change increase), and, ultimately, the depletion of their natural resources. Although powerful relative to their size and population, the Gulf states are rentier states, and represent the most oil-dependent countries in the world. Their investment in the space sector is an important part of their ongoing economic transition to address these factors.

The UAE has established a national space agency (2016-2022), which is aimed to create “a vibrant commercial space sector.” To that end, the UAE has  launched several funding campaigns: the “Space Means Business” campaign, the Emirates Mission to the Asteroid Belt (EMA), and the National Space Fund. These campaigns generated more than $800 million (USD) for “groundbreaking programs [supporting] international and Emirati companies cooperating in space-sector engineering, sciences, and research applications” - and the Space Economic Zones Program “intended to support space startups and other small- and medium-sized enterprises”. 

In 2016, as part of its economic diversification strategy, Saudi Arabia unveiled its Vision 2030 plan. The plan seeks to achieve Saudi Arabia's energy transition goals via the development of a competitive commercial space sector. In 2018, Saudi Arabia set up its own space agency, which, in 2022, was followed by the Saudi Space Accelerator Program, to which it will allocate up to $2 billion by 2030.

Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia want to ensure the long-term resilience and competitiveness of their economies. They perceive their investment in the space sector as a means of developing a knowledge-based society, in which their citizens contribute to the national prosperity through innovation and entrepreneurship. In both countries, young generations are actively encouraged to pursue careers in the space sector.

Opportunities of New Partnerships & Potential Military Applications

The ambition to be the regional leader in the space sector has seen the different states seek out partnerships with established and emerging players in space exploration. For example, the UAE is committed to developing international partnerships with emerging players such as China, India, and Israel. In 2023, the UAE and China agreed to build a joint research and development centre in Abu Dhabi to work on several aspects of space exploration.

In the context of the increasing tension and rivalry between the USA and China, the Gulf states have “to manage a difficult balancing act”, simultaneously maintaining their traditional ties to the USA, while engaging with China on space exploration - with its ambition to establish “a new space diplomacy” with the Global south. This situation is reflected in the ratification of the USA led Artemis Accords in 2020 by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, while also taking part in talks with China at the China-Gulf Cooperation (G.C.C) summit in 2022.

The UAE has shown even greater pragmatism in being both a member of the Artemis Accords and cooperating in the International Luna Research Station (IRLS), co-founded by China and Russia. However, due to the UAE’s and Saudi Arabia’s military dependence on the USA, there are limits to their cooperation with China. In 2022, the USA International Traffic in Arms Regulations “prevented the Emirati rover “Rashid 2” from joining a Chinese Chang’e 7 mission to the moon”. The Chinese Chang’e 7 programme, which will be launched in 2026, aims at exploring the moon’s environment and its available resources. China’s rapid progress in space research and development is viewed by the USA as a direct threat to its own interests. 

In the 21st century, the adoption of new and advanced technologies coming out of space research programmes for military purposes is reshaping military power. Space systems provide countries with strategic advantages, with the possibility of conducting ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) missions over disputed territories. To decrease its military dependency on satellite imagery from foreign countries, the UAE “partially manufactured its own high-resolution imaging satellites” (KhalifaSat and MBZ-SAT) for use in its territorial dispute over the islands of Abu Musa, and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, with the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI).

Conclusion 

The investment and development related to the space sector is now an integral part of each of the Gulf states respective national visions. Its importance is part of the economic, social, and military aspirations for the future. However, it requires maintaining a balance in relationships with both old and new partners, along with risk management of new technologies and their utilisation. The development of military applications from these space programmes could jeopardize the security and stability of the region. To contain these risks and maintain a broad range of collaborations, the use of diplomacy will be paramount. The development of space exploration treaties, establishing common rules and norms, potentially even a space governance. In response to these risks, Saudi Arabia and the UAE appear to be in favour of agreeing on common rules and norms. Iran has looked to enter into a space treaty with Russia and China.